Hoosier

Probably won't be far from the record high on Thu in Chicago. At this point I'd say within a degree or two.

I lost it yesterday. Not a lot of people in my town lost power but I was one of the unlucky ones. Got down to 62 degrees in here. It takes a lot to make me cold but I was starting to feel it.

Well well Public Information Statement National Weather Service Chicago IL 605 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022 /705 PM EDT Sat Nov 5 2022/ ...NWS Damage Survey for 11/05/22... .Little Rock to Big Rock Tornado... Rating: EF-0 Estimated Peak Wind: 80 mph Path Length /statute/: 3.7 miles Path Width /maximum/: 100 yards Fatalities: 0 Injuries: 0 Start Date: Nov 05 2022 Start Time: 1106 AM CDT Start Location: Little Rock, IL Start Lat/Lon: 41.7172 / -88.5733 End Date: Nov 05 2022 End Time: 1110 AM CDT End Location: Big Rock, IL End Lat/Lon: 41.7674 / -88.5499 && EF Scale: The Enhanced Fujita Scale classifies tornadoes into the following categories: EF0...Weak......65 to 85 mph EF1...Weak......86 to 110 mph EF2...Strong....111 to 135 mph EF3...Strong....136 to 165 mph EF4...Violent...166 to 200 mph EF5...Violent...>200 mph NOTE: The information in this statement is preliminary and subject to change pending final review of the event and publication in NWS Storm Data. $$ - Izzi

I'd say this exceeded my expectations, and I was semi-bullish to begin with. Another reminder that even the shallowest convection in dynamic systems like this will find any excuse to transport severe level winds to the surface.

Late season tropical(ish) threat SE US?

It is perhaps redundant, but maybe becoming a bit more justified now with that 77 mph gust at DPA and more recently an 80 mph gust near Roselle and a 75 mph gust at Manhattan. That's significantly stronger than what's in the high wind warning.

77 mph gust at DPA.

Multiple large branches down on my block.

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 1059 AM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 1059 AM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022 As of 1055AM, a line of gusty convective showers is moving across areas east of I-39 and recently produced a 51 kt gust at RFD. Along and just ahead of the leading line of showers, aggressive wind gusts have been downing trees and power lines across portions of northern Illinois. Several Severe Thunderstorm Warnings have been issued thus far due to the damage potential associated with winds stronger than the already robust background flow and multiple reports. This line, moving to the northeast at around 45 mph, will trek across the rest of the CWA through the remainder of the morning into the early part of the afternoon. Severe Thunderstorm Warning issuance will continue as needed through early afternoon. Several notable mesovortices have been popping up along the leading edge, most short-lived and none too concerning at this point. However, we will hang onto a chance for a few brief, sporadic spin-ups as the line progresses eastward into a region of 300-400 m2/s2 of effective SRH. However, the shallow nature of the storms and lack of instability thus far have precluded Tornado Warning issuance, though we will certainly continue to closely monitor mesovortices on radar for any stronger rotational signatures. Doom/Castro

It's still 70 at O'Hare.

Looking at model trends, there seems to be a trend toward a little slower deepening of our surface low. Not major though.

Evening update from Izzi Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 926 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 922 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022 No big changes planned this evening, going forecast looks to be in good shape. Should see a dramatic ramp up in winds early Saturday morning, particularly as the warm conveyor belt shifts east. There should be an envelope of strong, potentially damaging southerly winds ahead of the cold front and associated squall line. Always very tricky in warm sector, warm air advection set-up determining how effectively the boundary layer will mix. Assuming there is a several hour break in precip between the warm conveyor and squall line, it seems quite reasonable that boundary layer could deepen some and begin to tap into some of the extremely strong winds just off the deck. Working in favor of this scenario is the very strong pressure falls over WI tomorrow morning in advance of the rapidly moving and rapidly deepening sfc low. There is certainly potential for 50kt+ gusts if rain doesn`t linger and keep things a bit more stable. Opted to hold off on upgrading to a high wind warning on this shift, but think the chances are slowly increasing that there will be at least scattered 50kt+ gusts, especially eastern and southern CWA. Threat of thunder & lightning tonight (and Saturday morning) is low, however as trough becomes negatively tilted overnight and cyclone begins to rapidly intensify very strong forcing could result in some convective elements within and especially along the leading edge of the encroaching warm conveyor developing. Given the extremely strong low level jet, cannot rule out a damaging wind threat with any of these type of convective elements overnight, especially if they can becoming oriented more orthogonal to the LLJ. Threat of this is low, with southern CWA favored due to lower static stability. Squall line is likely to accompany cold front that will rapidly sweep across the CWA mid-late morning Saturday. Certainly plausible we could see 45-55kt gusts with this squall line, though many areas could already be gusting that strong out ahead of the squall line. In the wake of the cold front, could see a couple hours of potentially flirting with 50kt+ gusts before strongest pressure rises shift north into Wisconsin and wind fields slowly abate mid-late afternoon. - Izzi

This probably won't meet the technical definition of bombogenesis as it would take 24 mb of deepening in 24 hours, but it will be bombogenesis-like with a deepening rate of at least 1 mb per hour for a number of hours. Pretty dynamic system we've got here, though not that unusual for this time of year. You know we're dealing with something with some punch with many of the wind advisories going into effect overnight/early morning, which is typically the least favorable time of day for strong winds. Not like mixing is even that good early on... this is largely the robust low level mass/wind response taking place as a result of the rapidly deepening system, so the poor diurnal timing really doesn't matter much.

Just think of it as nature's rollercoaster.

Marginal has been added in the OV for tomorrow. Wouldn't be surprised at some isolated wind reports west of where they have it though.

Marginal risk for today was extended farther north.

I was so pissed at that Dec (when I used to really obsess over snow). Of course pure ecstasy came 2 weeks later.

This can be the first sub with a dedicated palm thread. Who wouldn't want that?

Not surprising with no freeze yet in the city and probably minimal frost. 3 weeks until the record latest freeze for Chicago. I don't think they'll make it until then but stranger things have happened.

This thin line in IL at 16z Saturday would be an item to watch. There is no instability with it, but it's in the presence of very strong wind fields. Not that hard to imagine something like that bringing down some 60+ mph gusts.

Ramp it up A period of High Wind Warning criteria would be in reach if this is on the right track

The triple dip thing is interesting in that it doesn't happen much, but I feel that one can get too caught up in that. I think 2nd year Ninas can be worthwhile to look at because that means that the Nina has already been established for quite a while. But a complicating factor is that sometimes the ENSO episode is not well-coupled with the atmosphere, let alone all the other factors that come into play. That's why seasonal forecasting is challenging. So many things can happen. Anybody who has like a 70-80% success rate with it is elite in my book.

I'd have to double check but I don't think Dec 1975 was that warm. It was at least more serviceable tempwise than some of the garbage we have seen lately in Dec.

Still some details to iron out with the weekend system. GFS is faster and deeper than the NAM.

Volunteering only worked once I think. Baroclinic instability