Hoosier

Was driving by a local outdoor fest earlier when the heavens opened up. I mean torrential, blinding rain. There were some tents off in the distance but there was a row of porta potties that was much closer to where some folks were. I was wondering if any of them was going to opt for a porta potty to take cover instead of making a lengthy run to a tent. Wasn't able to see what happened since I was just driving by. If I were one of them, I probably would've settled for a porta potty lol. Always have a plan B.

Actually feels fairly uncomfortable outside even though it's only around 80. I think it's the dews. I think the cool weather has affected my tolerance build up to the sticky stuff.

These drops are huge.

Awful

I liked the late sunsets when I was in LAF.

I have seen a hair over 10,000 J/kg progged in the Corn Belt before... believe it was in Iowa or perhaps Illinois. Don't believe it was ever observed on a sounding there because it either didn't happen or occurred in between the observation sites.

ENH extended southeastward.

In any case, somebody is gonna get plowed. 30 day rain amounts are quite impressive

Whether or not it happens on the 06z outlook, I think there's a fairly decent chance that tomorrow ends up being an ENH risk around IA/MO/IL.

I haven't checked but anecdotally it seems like it's been cloudier than average for a while.

Well, good news is that can't trend much worse.

I think it's an office by office thing or even just comes down to who did the survey/typed up the summary. I have seen verbose descriptions for EF0/EF1 tornadoes but sometimes not. I think it's more important that they were accurate (or at least as accurate as possible) with the path length, intensity, etc.

NAM and GFS have near 80 degree dews in part of the sub on Saturday. This is about the time of year when you'd start expecting the possibility but will the corn lagging behind play a role?

Partially. It was overdeepening the low quite a bit.

Agree... it is more impressive to go this long nowadays. ORD is about as far inland as you can go and still be a "Chicago" observation site.

bring it

Not surprisingly, the NAM has gone weaker/south since those really jacked up runs.

Getting to be late for Chicago to not have recorded a high of 85+ yet. The record latest is July 3 back in 1935. I don't think that record will be broken but let's see how many more days it will take. First 85+ high: June 19: 1893, 1924, 1997, 2009 June 22: 1882 June 23: 1884 June 30: 1878 July 2: 1883 July 3: 1935

Around I-80 south... mostly Isn't it still a bit early climo wise for New England?

Pattern just has that look of having the potential to produce monster amounts over the next week or two... perhaps double digits somewhere (from this point forward) if convective complexes hit the same area over and over again.

992 mb in IN at this time of year would be impressive. Guessing that the NAM is overdoing things though

So about that Wednesday system.

8 tornadoes so far in IN (5 in IND, 3 in ILN). Here's an interesting tidbit... that is more tornadoes on June 15, 2019 than occurred on all June 15ths from 1950-2018 combined.

IND tweeted that they found a couple of EF2s... one east of Bloomfield and another near Ellettsville.

Based on the damage pics I have seen and radar data, I am confident that the tornado around Ellettsville is EF2+.