Hoosier

Generally speaking I think there was a little too much capping and cloud cover, so the severe reports were fairly limited.

Public Information Statement National Weather Service Chicago IL 412 PM CDT Wed Sep 4 2019 /512 PM EDT Wed Sep 4 2019/ ...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 9/3/2019 BEACH PARK/WAUKEGAN AREA TORNADO... .National Weather Service staff on Wednesday surveyed the storm damage from Tuesday evening in far north Waukegan. With the assistance of Lake County Emergency Management Agency (EMA) and Waukegan EMA, along with trained spotter reports, we were able to conclude a brief tornado occurred before moving over the lake. .WAUKEGAN TORNADO... Rating: EF-1 Estimated peak wind: 90 mph Path length /Statute/: 3.1 miles Path width /Maximum/: 200 yards Fatalities: 0 Injuries: 1 Start date: 9/3/2019 Start time: 6:39 PM CDT Start location: 3.5 miles north-northwest of Waukegan Start Lat/Lon: 42.4113 / -87.8624 End date: 9/3/2019 End time: 6:43 PM CDT End location: 3.0 miles north-northeast of Waukegan End_lat/lon: 42.4030 / -87.8024 Damage from the tornado was minor to commercial buildings and residences, including windows blown out, minor roof damage, fence destruction, and damage to a gas station canopy. There was a vehicle flipped just east of the intersection of York House Road and Lewis Avenue where the one minor injury occurred. Numerous trees felled or experienced heavy branch damage. The tornado was at its widest and strongest in the latter half of its path. The one mile stretch between the last damage point and the lake shore was unable to be surveyed due to a nature area. A waterspout was reported just off shore and so by interpolation we took the tornado path to the lakefront. EF Scale: The Enhanced Fujita Scale classifies tornadoes into the following categories. EF0...Weak......65 to 85 mph EF1...Weak......86 to 110 mph EF2...Strong....111 to 135 mph EF3...Strong....136 to 165 mph EF4...Violent...166 To 200 mph EF5...Violent...>200 mph* NOTE: The information in this statement is PRELIMINARY and subject to change pending final review of the event and publication in NWS Storm Data. $$ LENNING/FRIEDLEIN/CARLAW

It is just part of a pattern with Trump. He is an oversensitive baby who has an extraordinarily hard time handling criticism. We have known for a long time that Alabama was out of the game. Just get your info right to begin with and then the NWS wouldn't have had to come out and correct you, etc.

So do you think Dorian will have an official landfall in the southeast US? Remember that landfall is defined as the center of the eye encountering land.

Fun fact... the Waukegan tornado is going to be only the 3rd tornado in the LOT cwa in the first half of September since 1978. The other 2 were EF1 in Jasper county, IN on 9/4/2008 and EF0 in LaSalle county, IL on 9/1/2013. Looking at all of IL/IN in general, the first half of September is a bit of a downtime.

Brief, and I mean brief, video of the Waukegan tornado close-up. Warning: strong language

This would be a good time for Heidi the Horrible to swoop in and remind everyone not to underestimate the will to survive.

dfuzz too

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 502 PM CDT Tue Sep 3 2019 .MESOSCALE DISCUSSION... 500 PM CDT Convective evolution continues to be monitored, with capping from the morning convection and lingering clouds severely impeding any mature development thus far. This will likely prevent any rapid development and may very well keep any development that can occur isolated, such as has been the case. A conditional severe risk does exist though if any sustained mode can develop. Convection in the southeast CWA over the past hour to hour and a half will have moved mainly east of the area by 530 pm. This activity is along an old outflow boundary and pseudo warm front advancing higher theta-e air into the area. While this convection has fair potential to be supercellular, it has struggled to be mature and sustaining thus far, likely owing to the cap. Further northwest along the cold front -- our now best chance for storms -- convection has been isolated in southern Wisconsin with agitated cumulus struggling along the boundary. Aircraft soundings from across northern Illinois and even into Wisconsin show capping around 850 mb, that had weakened little since ILX`s 18Z sounding. In Wisconsin there are more noteworthy height falls and associated cooling with the ascent that looks to only just graze far northern Illinois. This is why we think development is likely only to be isolated at least for the next few hours. Observational trends indicate the front is slower than forecast trends, and so did slow the forecast timing of chances slightly, along with lower them some. The nature of development should continue to be discrete given the orthogonal flow and shear with respect to the front. Given the values of deep layer shear (50+ kt) and CAPE, including in the low-levels thanks to the high moisture ahead of the front, supercellular mode is still favored and a conditional severe threat if sustained enough. If convection can grow more scattered into early evening as the front works into eastern Illinois and northwest Indiana, it`s possible some segments/clustering may develop and have a little more potential for wind. MTF

Also, don't actively campaign for the position as that usually doesn't work.

Does Bastardi have any thoughts about winter yet?

Been pretty socked in here, though there are breaks looking upstream in IL/WI.

Sigtor numbers are progged to pop later. Low level flow does veer for the most part but mid level WNW flow does mean some directional shear.

As far as Josh, give it a week.

New day 1 outlook maintains a slight risk. It is loaded with uncertainty but the duscussion even mentioned a strong tornado being possible if things come together.

Yeah, I had a chance to check LSRs and there are some damage reports in there from the wake low.

Had a period of very gusty winds earlier. Was that a wake low or something?

I gotta say that a substantial amount of posts have been hidden from view, so for as bad as you think it is it could be much worse.

LOT .LONG TERM... 311 PM CDT Tuesday through Monday... The main item of interest for the rest of the short workweek will be tied to a cold front, both gusty winds and thunderstorm chances ahead of it on Tuesday, some possibly strong to severe, as well as a heightened rip current risk for the Lake Michigan beaches behind this front on Wednesday. Tuesday`s thunderstorm chances continue to look as if they fall in two primary time windows: 1.) the morning north of I-80 with activity shifting out of Wisconsin and 2.) potential for redeveloping scattered activity ahead of a cold front in the mid- afternoon, most favored south and east of a Chicago O`Hare to LaSalle-Peru line. While there is fairly good confidence in those time windows, sizable uncertainty exists in convective morphology and coverage within these. In addition, any morning activity will likely play into the afternoon location of redevelopment and potentially its magnitude. The main forecast changes were primarily to refine timing some. Also collaborated with neighboring offices and SPC to continue to reflect a Slight Risk type verbiage, though the instability and shear spectrum that is tapped includes isolated higher end potential conditional on supercell mode being able to develop in the afternoon. That`s on the lower end of confidence spectrum right now. Upstream observational trends this afternoon across the Dakotas and Minnesota play somewhat into what are expectations are for early Tuesday morning. The more organized MCS behavior there is across central Minnesota this evening and into western/southwestern Wisconsin early overnight, the better likelihood some activity makes it into far northern Illinois Tuesday morning. The effective warm front has been struggling to reach north downstream of the current North Dakota MCS, and as such this may not yet be the primary convective show, with potentially more developing further south through the night in a semi-organized state, especially given the strength of the low- level jet. This jet will orient across northern Illinois early Tuesday morning with likely a convectively-enhanced short wave traversing central Wisconsin. Whether some remnant MCS or elevated scattered activity, it is likely some convection will be flirting with far northern Illinois and if organized could make it down to I-80 by later morning. The severe threat with this looks isolated at this time, and tied to steepening mid-level lapse rates and effective shear in the 1-6 km layer increasing to 45 kt. The footprint of convection and any debris will be key for afternoon pre-frontal recovery, but given the strength of the surface pressure gradient and wind field, warm and moist advection in the low levels should not be completely hampered in the case of organized morning convection. The surface low, likely at or just below 1000 mb, will be crossing the U.P. of Michigan through Tuesday. This is still a ways from the CWA but is closer with a stronger gradient than last Thursday`s setup, and thus this late summer cold front will have greater moisture to work with to spark renewed convection in the region. Southwest wind gusts by early afternoon are forecast to be 30-35 mph with potential for 40 mph gusts again dependent on cloud cover. The confluence along and ahead of the boundary for maximized moisture/instability and lifting of parcels improves the further northeast along the boundary, especially into lower Michigan and northern/northwestern Indiana by later afternoon. If little activity in the morning though, this may be slightly further west including over Chicago during peak heating. Dew points should be in the lower 70s at least with possible mid 70s given upstream conditions. Temperatures into the 80s, possibly upper, support mixed layer CAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg in any pre-frontal locations that receive even just filtered sun into the afternoon. The regime favors plenty of deep layer shear again with 45-55 kt, and some turning in the lowest 3 km. If afternoon convection can redevelop in the CWA...again most possible favored south and east of Chicago to LaSalle-Peru line... the mode is likely to be semi-discrete given mainly perpendicular flow to the boundary, with a trend into early evening to have some more convective segments as it evolves southeast. Hazards would include hail especially initially, and wind in segments. The high instability and wide nature of the CAPE in the vertical predicted on NAM and RAP soundings would support some significant hail threat especially in any temporary supercell structures that can initially develop. Any bowing segments too could be a little more robust, but that`s even lower confidence in our area right now. The tornado threat is low in our area compared to lower Michigan where there is more of a warm advection, slightly backed low-level flow regime, but any initial supercells would have a non-zero threat. Overall if having to highlight an area that is the better looking within the broader Slight Risk for our area, that would be far northwest Indiana right now.

I'd feel bad. He seems like a cool dude. He has done this often enough to where his abilities are pretty darn good, but as a chaser you must recognize that there is always a small chance of something going really wrong.

Definitely some issues tomorrow. Not all that excited at the moment but we'll see.

The ol 15% hatched day 2. Certainly a bit unusual for these parts (actually can't remember the last time that happened) as hatching is usually accompanied by higher probabilities.

Maybe SandySurvivor can post them for you.

Nah, I'm good. NHC made a reasonable argument on why it wasn't upgraded. We are talking about the difference between a high end cat 4 vs a cat 5 lurking off the coast. Not a huge difference there.

Looks like 27.4" for the entire season.