Hoosier

I heard trixie has been having issues lately.

Might be a record early start for the med/long range thread.

This thread is for systems showing up in the medium-long range. Have already been talking about it a bit in the seasonal thread, but the extended looks to have some unusually cold air to tap into with even some model/ensemble suggestion of a wintry system or two. Nothing set in stone of course.

Models are muddled on the details of course but I really think something anomalous could happen in the final week of the month. The amount of cold air that is available to be tapped into looks quite impressive for this time of year. It's possible that nothing really happens and it ends up being a dry chill but the foundation is there.

System late next week/weekend would be a little interesting, relatively speaking (it is October after all), with a little different/colder evolution. Have to remember that anything more than flurries/snow showers is very uncommon at this time of year for most of the sub, but damn if it isn't a winterish look at times in the extended.

Maybe it's just me but the pattern has the feel of something that could produce an unseasonably far south October snowfall. There looks to be some decent cold (by Oct standards) to play with at times.

Big dog

Looks like areas WELL west of Chicago got down to freezing or just below... talking like DeKalb and Rockford. Aurora didn't even make it but last night wasn't a night where they shine since it was mainly advective cooling. Then had widespread 33-34 readings south of the city (including here).

Some of the latest info does suggest a possible weak Nino for winter. May fall a bit short. It could end up being a case of Ninoish but not meeting the technical criteria of 5 consecutive trimonthly readings.

For sure. Probably have to go back about 5-6 months for the last time that temps were like this at this time of day (talking about the area behind the cold front of course)

North Dakota is going to get slammed. As we come up on the 30th anniversary of the more freakish Oct 1989 snowstorm that blasted IN and surrounding areas. I think Chicagowx once called it the fluke of the century, which is not that far off the mark for the areas affected. Certainly a once in a lifetime type of thing at most.

After slowing down on earlier runs, the models have sped up the front a bit in the past couple days. Instability continues to look like it will be on the lower end. The modeled temps/dews (dews in the low to mid 60s) would be good enough for a decent amount of severe wx in a lot of setups at this time of year, but overall CAPE is limited by those meager lapse rates. The better mid level flow also lags behind by more than I'd like to see, especially given the aforementioned problem with instability. I was surprised to not even see a token 5% area on the day 3 outlook though.

btw, top shelf day today.

Not really a believer in the LRC. Not to say that general patterns don't repeat but I think people tend to twist things to try to fit the "LRC"... at least from what I have observed.

Congrats Fargo

Interesting CIPS... there are a few big fall outbreaks in there, a couple smaller ones and quite a few that produced no severe wx in the region. Take your pick lol. I'd probably lean away from the bigger ones toward one of the smaller ones at this point given the concern about instability/mid level lapse rates. Usually it's sort of hard to reverse the mid level lapse rate problem on the models once it's there. Maybe pure advection can drive the temps up above guidance and help out the instability a bit.

Gotta admit, an open voting system would be better than a cabal being "outraged" for an audience of one.

If there were a vote on whether you or Akeem stays, I'm not sure you'd win. Just calling it like I see it. No hard feelings.

Guidance is in better agreement now on the slower solution. One of the negatives in this setup looks like junky mid level lapse rates. That could be overcome to some degree if forcing is strong enough but still a bit too far out to get into the finer details on system evolution.

Hey Bo. Nice pics. The early turners are changing around here but still a lot of green to be found.

You would've definitely dropped a "what a way to spend a Saturday night"

Euro's slower solution results in better moisture return (not that the GFS was all that terrible in that regard)

Watching the system at the end of next week. Could have some severe potential. Currently looks like the duration of moisture return is going to be somewhat limited but could be good enough.

Somebody finally got too fed up with twitter embed not working.