Hoosier
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Everything posted by Hoosier
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We're in this thread now:
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Quick peek at the 12z RGEM and it's interesting. Don't know if it's right but it actually deepens the system to sub 990 mb in IL tomorrow.
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Fwiw, NHC now classifying it as a depression with some chance of strengthening.
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I think you are thinking of the September 1941 hurricane. Made landfall in Texas and quickly moved northeastward. There are some other examples of windy remnant systems like the 1900 Galveston hurricane and Ike but doesn't happen too often.
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We all want to see climo not rule, don't we?
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I tell you what... it would've been interesting to entrain a legit hurricane into this. The system is hauling and it only takes about 12-15 hours to move from the Louisiana coast to IL/IN. That would not have offered a lot of time to spin down a hurricane wind field, especially those winds aloft.
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Here comes winter -- October 28-November 1 Snowstorm Potential
Hoosier replied to Hoosier's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
I am shocked you didn't go DAB already. -
Things get muddled as the potential tropical system comes into play and merges, but it appears like this is trying to maintain it as a distinct identity perhaps? Or the models could be getting it confused with the non tropical system. Who knows lol
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Here comes winter -- October 28-November 1 Snowstorm Potential
Hoosier replied to Hoosier's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Would certainly rather be north of Chicago at this point. That being said, despite it being late October, I wouldn't assume we are automatically going to see northwest trends because climo or whatever. There is an unusual amount of cold air dumping in and the "zone" should sort of be established by the initial system. It is taking a hyperbomb to get these western solutions, and personally I think the Euro/ICON type outcomes represent roughly the western limit. -
Storm thread
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Let's go. Looking like multiple parts with part 1 not being that many days away.
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18z GFS continues to creep in a more favorable direction.
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Hoping the tropical system gets a name. That would be kind of cool to have a frost (maybe even freeze?) on the same day as that. At least something to pass the time as big bertha looms next week.
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I didn't check the ICON winds. Was talking about the Euro.
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Raw day too. From possible frost in the morning to that.
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There is an 850 mb max upwards of 75 kts in lower MI at 192 hours, most of which would probably mix down given the situation with a rapidly bombing low. There is quick deepening and then there is what we are seeing on models like the Euro (and ICON), which is on a different level.
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The models that entrain the tropical system better have a deeper surface low once it gets into our region. Probably not a coincidence.
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Most models have something down there. On the 12z Euro rolling in you can see a landfall on the Louisiana coast around 48 hrs. Would be fairly late in the season to get something that far west in the Gulf but has happened before. Fortunately for them it has limited time to develop.
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The weekend system may even ingest a possible tropical remnant (hasn't developed yet).
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Euro had the higher gusts farther east I think (going off memory)
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It is hard to overstate the tree damage that would occur on these rapidly bombing model solutions, even in areas with little/no snow, but let alone areas that get more significant snow. We don't see bombing of this magnitude squarely in the sub that often, and there is a tremendous low level wind response as that happens.
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12z GFS doesn't do much. However, looking at dprog/dt, I get the sense that maybe it is slooowly trying to get there. Meanwhile, the 12z ICON develops much like the 00z Euro.
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That is a tree wrecker on the 00z Euro. Impressive winds on the back side.
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GFS ain't biting, so why not
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Interestingly, Nov 1951 produced some significant snows unusually far south. For example, Chicago had 14" with virtually all of it in the first week of the month. Next week looks to have some significant snow potential in the Plains/Midwest.
