Hoosier

Juan might be the last one this late in the season this far west but could be forgetting something.

Wider view

Will be interesting to see how long that band maintains.

Post tropical Olga is kickin. Can pick out a circulation in Tennessee and there have been 60-70 mph winds in Mississippi.

Almost looks like an eye lol, and there is a severe thunderstorm warning for the band of heavy rain/storms on the north side of it

Lowest pressure I can find is 998.5 in Tupelo, MS. If you check out radar, you can actually see the remnant circulation down there now just northwest of Tupelo. Possible that pressure is lower in between observation locations, but a number of models had it down to 993-995 at 1 pm central which may not verify.

Might have a bit of a meh outcome around here with heaviest band of rain west and strongest winds south. Updated LOT afd mentioned the possibility of a period of 50+ mph winds in the southern cwa but no wind advisory yet.

Can't rule out a low end/conditional severe/tornado threat later this afternoon and evening out ahead of the surface low. SPC doesn't have it outlooked and I don't blame them but a tongue of modest instability does swing through in the midst of strong shear profiles. Lapse rates aloft are garbage so any instability is going to have to be more advective driven. Guidance does break out showers/storms in the dry slot.

00z Euro dumps about 3" of rain here. The max band could end up a tad west though depending on track. 35 and dead calm outside. Almost hard to believe.

Quite a difference on back to back runs this close in

Based on my research of tropical remnants in LAF that I did years ago, I can't recall an instance of something that deep in the area, so yeah, it makes it easy to bet against. Even Ike only got down to about 988 mb while in Indiana... of course that had been a hurricane before that and I am not comparing this setup to Ike. We don't get regular practice with this kind of thing in the Midwest... a tropical system being ingested by a negatively tilting trough and the whole thing hauling a**, but intuitively speaking, something toward the deeper outcomes (excluding HWRF) makes sense to me.

It is good with tropical systems but will add the disclaimer that I'm not sure how it performs with transitioned systems.

The 18z HWRF goes crazy. Gets down to at least 981 mb (with tight gradient) but run is still coming in. Big wind problems if that verifies.

I hate these types of situations where you know there will probably be a window of GFS runs that look good for your backyard on its way to joining the other models.

Some serious bombogenesis on the 18z GFS.

Recon found a pressure of 998 mb. Since this thing is going to get baroclinic assistance near/after landfall, the pressure at landfall could give us a clue as to whether the deeper models may be on the right track.

Well we'll see. Winds could still be underplayed if the deeper models verify, but it's a wait and see game.

System has become tropical storm Olga.

HRRR is in the deeper camp as well

12z Euro gust map has 50-60 mph gusts. Wonder if any of the offices will go into the wind potential in the afternoon discussions.

That is sustained though. Would certainly have a period of stronger gusts in the RGEM scenario... if it's right.

12z Euro is on the deep side Seems like what we're seeing is deepening into IL and then gradual filling.

Here are the RGEM 925 mb winds... this is just for illustration as a weaker system would obviously have weaker wind fields. But notice the stronger flow near the circulation and then a pocket of stronger winds develops on the southern side. That would be the area to watch for better mixing.

RGEM is the deepest but the Ukie does get it down to 990 mb on the better maps. At first I was wondering about some convective feedback problem on the RGEM but not sure. The trough interaction with this remnant system would make me not want to rule out something on the deeper side but the RGEM could be too extreme.

If the deeper solution does verify, could see a burst of enhanced winds immediately in advance of and behind the low.