Hoosier

18z NAM is deeper with the surface low. Keep an eye on that to see if it's a trend... quicker deepening = more robust low level wind response = more of a problem where trees are caked in snow.

Janetjanet, where art thou?

Really not sure what's going to happen here at my place on Wed morning. You could argue anything from all rain to a sloppy couple inches or so. I suspect neither of those outcomes will be right and that the answer lies somewhere in between. I just still have a hard time believing that the onshore flow at that progged strength is going to be entirely successful at preventing snow from occurring once you get this distance away from the lake. Now this is assuming heavy precip rates to assist with cooling. If precip stays on the lighter side for some reason, then it would have a very hard time snowing.

That is 10:1 though

18z RAP and HRRR differ on amounts, but the common theme is to bring snow farther south into parts of far northwest Indiana especially away from the lake. Wonder if LOT will bite.

Daily record snowfall on 10/31 for Chicago is 0.1". Think it will be surpassed?

Yes Can you post the snow map?

12z Euro has 2-3" all the way to the Chicago lakefront. Def zone is definitely the better bet to get some accumulation there as winds flip offshore. Should be some moderate bursts in that precip shield.

Sort of a minor detail but there should be a little lake enhanced precip on the western side of the lake before the flow backs around on Thursday.

Tonight is a good example of how it can snow south of the 540 dm thickness line and the importance of checking soundings. It happens when you have relatively warmish temps aloft with a fairly deep layer hovering around/slightly below freezing. In this case it may be snowing in places with 546 dm thicknesses and every so often it can snow with thicknesses even a tad higher than that.

4 blocks huh? Hope precip type won't be more of an issue. I went to elementary school with a kid who moved across the street. But hey, gotta do what works I guess.

I can count on about 2 fingers the number of times I can remember it snowing on halloween.

Well if nothing else for areas that miss out on the better amounts -- roughly Chicago east -- there should be a period where it looks like winter with some wind blown snow on the back end. Magnitude of wind will of course depend on how quickly the low deepens.

00z GFS might even be a tad more amped.

Both valid concerns. I just find it hard to believe it would go quite as far inland as the 3km NAM. Now certainly the best accums will be pretty far inland but I have a hard time believing the cutoff between snow/no snow will be that far from the lake in this setup. I guess we'll see. 00z HRRR coming in better... even tries to toss me a bone.

Very noticeable. There will be an impact for sure but don't know about the snow line being pushed 15-20 miles inland.

Was thinking the same thing. Nice signal showing up for moderate to at times heavy precip. Could envision a period of snowfall rates around 1" per hour on the colder surfaces.

True that. The good thing is that the flow looks fairly light (maybe 5-10 mph on Wednesday morning) and I am located several miles inland... so if thermal profiles aloft can trend a little cooler then it might lead to a longer period of mix/snow... big if though.

I had you in mind when I typed that Probably want to stop the bleeding on the trends though...

The top CIPS analog is 10/26/1997. 12/1/2006 is also on the list.

Roughly Kirksville, MO to western Cook county is the heavier snow band on the 12z Euro.

That band is such a tease around here. Marginal thermal profiles in general + flow off a 50+ degree lake is no good. Wetbulbs may get down around a couple thousand feet though early on so maybe can't rule out some wet flakes mixing in during heavier bursts early morning.

12z Canadian is still a mess. UKMET looks a bit strung out too.

There's the band I was mentioning. Some love for areas that are just a little too far south for later tonight.

So the big question is how much to allow for melting given how early in the season it is. There isn't model consensus yet on amounts which makes it difficult to figure but obviously not actually going to see everything that is modeled be on the ground. Breaks in the precip will allow for melting. That being said, it won't be 60 or 70 degrees the day before and temps will be dropping below freezing so I think a large portion of what is modeled may actually accumulate.