Hoosier
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Everything posted by Hoosier
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If the initial band of snow could join up better with the slug of moisture that develops farther south, we'd have a band of 6+. Not saying that will happen but it's not that far away from happening.
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lol
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12z Euro did stop the bleeding at least. Would be a band of 3-6" in northern IL when factoring in better than 10:1. Nice size snow swath overall, especially for something at this time of year.
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Feeling good about not getting whiffed to the south. Other than that am keeping expectations on the low side. Would just be nice to get some snow in advance of the more significant cold.
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At least the 18z NAM isn't like the GFS.
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Today will be the earliest high below 32 at ORD since 1991. 11/3/1991 had a high of 24... yikes.
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12z GEM has a mesolow for the ages rolling down Lake Michigan. Not buying these model output verbatim of course but mesolow development does seem likely in this setup.
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Pretty small sample size though. It would be interesting to look at November and how x total by a certain date or the end of that month does. At some point it becomes difficult to prevent an above average snow season if you rack up a lot early.
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GFS being stubborn.
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Acceptable enough Ratios would probably improve from beginning to end too
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00z Euro looks like it will have a decent storm.
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Now being reported around Chicago.
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00z UKMET is nice.
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Parameters look good to excellent downwind of Lake Michigan for a rather prolonged time. Should peak early in the week though as that graphic mentioned. The South Bend area or somewhere in between there and here looks to be primed. Impressive to see the global models trying to pick out mesolow development at this distance. That could play havoc with the wind fields and cause the band(s) to curl west at times to the point where it could affect my area and/or possibly even the IL/WI shore for a time.
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A number of GEFS members have a better look than the op. I did read that the ensembles did not get the upgrade that the GFS did so maybe a bit of an apples to oranges comparison but still nice to see.
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18z ICON Nice period of lake enhancement in ne IL too.
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Lake effect parameters look pretty high end next week. Could really pile up somewhere if there's not a lot of band shifting.
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Temps overachieving with sun and sw flow.
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Remember the monster low that the GFS blew up a few days ago as the cold air dumped in? That was an extreme outcome but let's see if things can trend any better with this in coming days.
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Check this out on the 00z GEM. Look near Cleveland. It seems like a mesolow but I have never seen one so well defined on a model. Like this is ridiculous. There appears to be one around Lake Michigan at the same time, but weaker.
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Yeah, my block is dominated by maples. I am weirdly excited to see the coming level of cold with so many leaves still on the trees.
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Trees on my block are still 60-70% full of leaves... on average... some have more than that. They were turning yellow but have recently gone to more of a brown look. I think there will still be a lot left on the trees when the more significant cold hits so the change to ugly brown will probably continue.
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Looks like there's a chance that this area could get clipped by that band of snow tomorrow morning. If that happens, then it's not out of the realm of possibility to have snow in the morning and temps pushing 50 in the afternoon.
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IF this airmass doesn't moderate in the coming days and there is a night or two of favorable radiational cooling, then we could see something pretty crazy especially where there is snow on the ground.
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The cold is more impressive again on the recent model runs, and not just the GFS. We'll see if it trends back the other way again but it is starting to get out of total goofball range.
