Hoosier

Granted it's the NAM at 84 hours, but just showing it to make a general point as ultimate location may be different. We can use the 850 mb vertical velocity output as a proxy for the lake effect band location, and as you can see, there's a strong signal in and around Porter county Indiana on the NAM at that time. Pulling a forecast sounding from northern Porter county reveals a deep layer of relatively steep lapse rates and good moisture in the low-mid levels, so we're working with very good inversion heights and implied lake-induced EL heights if modifying for lake water temps. Getting precip won't be a problem. The bigger question is how far inland will you have to go to get away from the marine warmth, thus having some better accumulation potential.

I've told the story before but I'll never forget looking at the radar before going to bed on the night of March 8, 1998 and thinking that something just didn't seem right with the forecasts of an inch or less (wasn't looking at models quite yet). Sure enough, woke up to it absolutely dumping snow. School was cancelled and I ended up with a foot.

Poor Alek I feel like the inland extent of the marine influence is overdone on here though. Don't think the freezing line will be all the way in McHenry county at that time.

As far as what I'd go with, it's a tough one. Nothing clearly jumps out for me where I'm like 'yeah, that's definitely the one.' Perhaps it would be 1/2/99. There was just something a little extra special about that... following it in the days before and then watching it come to fruition.

It'll be interesting to see if the upcoming system accumulates more efficiently, especially on the paved surfaces (a lot of pics I saw from yesterday were mainly grassy). The cold has had some more time to settle in now.

Sort of tricky to figure out where the highest amounts will be in LOT's area. There is a lake signal showing up (trending more favorable toward nw IN with time) but that will be countered by warmer low level temps near the lake. If I had to bet I'd go with somewhere a little inland in northwest IN by the time it's all done but not the greatest confidence.

Only requirement is that it has to be something that you were alive for. It doesn't necessarily have to be something that you personally witnessed (e.g. maybe you really enjoyed watching Hurricane Andrew make landfall) but where's the fun in that, right? Pick anything you want. Winter storm, tornado, big hailstorm, derecho, ridiculous heat, insane dew point, etc. Something that lasted a bit beyond 1 day is acceptable, but "March 2012" is not.

I would completely disregard 1997, as that was the strong Nino winter. Nothing like that this time. I dug more into IND's early snowfalls, and it's very unusual for them to only go 3 years since the last 2" snowfall before 11/15. On the other hand, the 22 year gap between 1997 and 2019 was unusually long.

Quality afd from RC considering it's a modest system.

Earliest factory effect on record?

2.7" at IND.

Indianapolis is over 2", which is a new daily record snowfall. It's also the 3rd year in the past 25 years that IND has received at least 2" before Nov 15. They are 1997, 2019, 2022

Probably a decent call for your backyard. Assuming lake temps are still near 50 by Tuesday morning (nearshore temps are currently ~53), that is often going to be a problem when winds are onshore and 850 mb temps "only" around -7C to -8C. The low level flow does not look that strong, so the marine influence shouldn't extend too far inland (ORD/MDW should largely be safe from it imo), but lakeside will be battling.

I didn't look at today's system much but did notice a "streaky" appearance to the qpf on the models I did check. That is often a good signal for banding, but obviously it really performed on the high end this time.

I liked that 2015 storm, even though the heavier band occurred to my north. The conditions in the afternoon of the 21st were arguably the most intense I've ever witnessed in the month of November.

Details on the interaction with the northern stream will be sorted out, but we at least have a pretty respectable southern stream wave being progged. This wave is currently around the coast of Oregon.

Folks, it's time. Likely not too big of a system, but it looks pretty widespread and we're less than 5 days away.

Smart money would be on a pullback/warmup later this month into the next, but hopefully it won't linger way into December.

Ha. Didn't even notice that. Besides the long nights, any cold frontal passage at this time of year pretty much guarantees temps dropping below 60, so have to get lucky with frontal timing too.

Hey beavis, here's some research for ya. Yesterday was just the 5th time on record that Chicago has had a 70/60 day on 11/10 or later. And it had been 70 years since it happened. 11/11/1882: 72/62 11/12/1902: 70/62 11/21/1913: 72/62 11/17/1952: 74/60 11/10/2022: 76/60

While there are model differences for the system next week, one signal with some agreement is for something that is not necessarily a quick hitter. Could be fairly dragged out, even if amounts aren't that high.

It did seem a little mild

12z GFS looks decent next week. Assuming this track holds relatively closely, we'll have to see about marine influence around Chicago as we get closer. The airmass aloft is not that chilly... I'd like to see it colder. If not rain mixed in, then it could be very sloppy/inefficient accumulation.

Low at ORD will be 61. Scratch that. Crept down to 60 right before midnight.

Put medium range in the title too. That's what we've done before.