Hoosier

Well, the long anticipated Thanksgiving-ish storm is coming into sight. Here is what the 12z Euro has at the end of the run

As a fan of front loaded winter, I hope December is a good wintry month. A little concerned that it may have some problems. I would gladly sacrifice the first half of the month though if it meant consistent cold/snow for the second half.

Yep. Hope everyone enjoyed winter in November. Better luck next time.

Midweek system looks like a pretty good snowpack destroyer.

There was actually not much less snow in March (11.6") than in that entire Dec-Feb period. Also got off to a much slower start at ORD that year with only 1.2" through November. ORD currently has 8.3" with half the month to go.

Base pattern looks pretty cool. Best bet for "warmth" would probably be out ahead of any system cutting northwest.

It's times like this that make me regret not living farther east downwind of the lake.

High at ORD was 17. So as mentioned, it is now the earliest sub 20 degree high on record for Chicago. Also... with a high that was 33 degrees below average and a low that was 27 degrees below average, today had an overall departure of -30 at ORD. That appears to be only the 4th time that Chicago has had a -30 or greater departure day in November. The other 3 are 11/21/1880, 11/24/1950 and 11/17/1959.

Just incredible for early afternoon at this time of year

If Chicago can remain 19 or under today, it would be the earliest high in the teens on record, beating out November 15 (1933).

Basically downtown Chicago... sorry mimillman PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL 220 PM CST MON NOV 11 2019 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0200 PM SNOW 1 SW NORTHERLY ISLAND 41.85N 87.62W 11/11/2019 E0.6 INCH COOK IL NWS EMPLOYEE Positive thing is that this cold will take a nice bite out of lake temps so that when the next legit snowstorm comes around, the marine layer might not be so much of an issue.

So we're going to pull back into something resembling a more normal Nov pattern, and it would be pretty bizarre not to since winter doesn't really lock in this early outside of the northern tier. Question is for how long.

Tomorrow is going to be something for the afternoon of November 12. Some models are even colder than this but let's not get too crazy

Seems like it generally underperformed or snuck into the low end of the range in IL/WI. Some areas did ok, like around Cedar Rapids and Rockford.

There was a 12 degree spread between O'Hare and Gary last hour. Nice

A surprising amount of blowing snow around here given the wetness of it.

HRRR has been suggesting the convergence zone may hang up for a bit in Lake county IN. Other models not really showing that as much, but even if it happens, temp profiles are the million dollar question. Can we at least get it down to 32-33 (especially inland)?

Dang dude. And in November. Enjoy.

If the HRRR is right it's going to vomit snow around here from about 12-16z. Other guidance is basically hitting that window as well... maybe up to 18z. That is definitely the make or break period.

It takes a special airmass to get noteworthy accumulating snow in the core of the city (not ORD, not MDW) at this time of year while the flow is onshore. In the halloween storm, precip didn't change to snow and start accumulating until the flow was offshore. And it is a pretty good airmass... I mean, we are talking about record cold coming in right behind this. There could eventually be some accumulations in the downtown area while the flow is still onshore but the better bet for more efficient accumulation is definitely as the flow turns more northerly and then west of north. It will be much colder just upstream (I could see ORD being like 27 while downtown is 34) so even a subtle shift in winds will bring that colder air in pretty fast.

The 8:10 pm LOT update almost sounds like I could've written it, lol.

Not calling bust for Chicago (especially at ORD since it's on the northwest fringe of the city), but it's one of those things where if it does come in on the lower side, we will be able to look back and say that there were some early clues. Wild card of course is the lake effect and it could compensate for a warmer start. I don't think I'd make significant changes to amounts if I were LOT.

The last 8 days of November 1950 had at least 1" of snow on the ground. That is the longest streak in November. I'd have to imagine there are very few occurrences of 5 days in the mid month timeframe.

Looking at current temps in parts of IL/WI, it seems they are running at or even above the warmer guidance right now. This could cancel out once it precipitates but may be a least a little cause for concern for cutting into amounts where marginal thermal profiles are progged to hang on longer, like around Chicago and into northwest IN.

The earliest sub 20 degree high in Chicago is November 15. There is a shot to pull it off on Tuesday. Should be close either way.