Hoosier

Come on, where is the optimism? I will take the over and say that ORD will be comfortably into double digits by the end of the month.

So not surprisingly given my location compared to yours, the snows have been much better timed with daylight. However temps have been a bit of an issue both times. The Halloween event was too warm to stick to most paved surfaces and the Veterans Day storm did eventually stick to paved surfaces but not at first and the overall total was small.

Op GFS is basically going full blast with arctic outbreak next week. Doesn't have a whole lot of ensemble support though.

I think this may be due to not having a stronger ENSO signal. When it's a stronger Nino or Nina, people can sort of play the odds. Hanging around neutral is a different ball game.

Lock it in, folks. Lock it in.

There were big storms there at the end of October and November in 1991. The first one was bigger though.

Chicago has recorded 47.99" of precipitation through November 30, which means that 2.88" is needed to break the all-time record. In 148 years of weather records, Chicago has recorded over 2.88" of precip in December a total of 30 times (30/148=20.3%). Average December precip is 2.25" and CPC has increased probabilities of a wetter than average December, so we'll see if it can be achieved. A more likely outcome would be to surpass 50" but fall short of the top spot, but that's not as cool so hopefully the record is broken.

Insane pics Bo.

May have a shot at the relatively rare lake effect/enhanced freezing rain somewhere around Chicago metro tonight. When this occurs, it's not really because of above freezing layers aloft but because the moisture is not that deep and has trouble resulting in snowflake production. This looks to be a possibility but low confidence overall in precip type with surface temps another question mark, especially near the shore.

I guess it was NWS Louisville. March 12, 1986. They went on to list a handful of other tornadoes that occurred with temps of 50-55 degrees The "coldest" tornadoes occurred on March 12, 1986, when three F1 tornadoes were observed while temperatures were in the middle 40s. There was also widespread wind damage and large hail. Low pressure was centered over southeast Kansas with a warm front reaching due east, along the Kentucky/Tennessee border. The tornadoes touched down just north of the front in Kentucky.

I think one of the IN or KY offices actually did some research on tornadoes that have occurred in their area with temps in the 40s. It's a small number of course and they are going to tend to be on the weaker side for obvious reasons.

Different setup but reminds me of that March 12 2006 storm that produced some tornadoes in northern Missouri (I think that's where they were) with similar temps. Pretty neat.

I knew beavis could only hold back for so long. That was a relatively tame "rant" though. There is some hope later in the month I think. Not that it's absolutely impossible to fumble into a snow event in the first 10-15 days of the month, but better chance for more sustained winter weather should come after.

CFS didn't go the way that most of us would have wanted in the last few runs. Looking at the weeklies, it has a colder turn later in the month though.

Yeah, that really stands out. Probably not an entirely random occurrence.

On another note, Chicago is chasing some history in the form of the wettest year on record. A drier than average November has set things back a bit but still currently in 5th place. Wettest years on record: 2008: 50.86" 2011: 49.83" 1983: 49.35" 2018: 49.23" 2019: 47.62" and counting

After the current storm goes by, things look to settle down a bit. Real concern that a large chunk of the month is blah.

Forgot about those lol. Could be an appropriate time though, especially with more people out on Sunday than usual.

LOT afternoon afd made a good point about the possibility of heavier bursts of snow on Sunday despite model qpf being on the low side. Forecast soundings have fairly steep lapse rates all the way up to 500 mb. Low level temps look a bit problematic but it may at least look pretty intense at times.

Yeah these early snow correlations don't really tell a whole lot, particularly the one I posted. Somebody posted about October snows not being a good sign for Chicago, but then when you extend it to snowiest starts by November 15 (the one I posted in Don's thread) it is much more of a mixed result.

Don S winter thoughts. Don't read if you like snowy winters

Thanks for your thoughts, Don. Chicago had its 2nd snowiest start to the season when looking at snow amounts through November 15. I ran the numbers on the 10 snowiest starts for Chicago (through Nov 15) and guess what, 5 years finished snowier than average and 5 had less snow than average. Given where ORD is at right now, it will likely be hard to hold them down in the low end of that range but certainly a mediocre season is not only conceivable, but well within the realm of possibility.

Hardly a hall of fame setup but it looks like there may be just enough delta T for a bit of lake enhancement/effect of rain/snow around the southern end of Lake Michigan as the sfc low passes through Sun-Mon.

Surprising... would've thought that record was a bit higher.

Valpo gusted to 66 mph earlier, which is highest in the LOT cwa so far. Would probably have places routinely gusting over 60 mph if it were not for the extensive clouds.