Hoosier

Don't know why somebody doesn't fix those maps. Practically all that stuff down south is sleet/freezing rain.

Widespread pre Xmas winter storm on the GFS. First things first though.

I am on board with that threat, which makes it like legally bound to happen. In all seriousness, at least it looks like we are entering a pattern with more chances to snow.

Interesting how some offices went with an advisory instead of snow squall warning. Seems like the snow squall warning is a better fit in this situation (low amounts, short duration) but what do I know.

A rather exciting 00z Euro run tonight. Too bad it's so far out.

Does look like a limited snow producer unfortunately, even if it does take that kind of track. Models have been flip flopping on track though.

Big Gulf to Lakes low is back on the 12z GFS.

Had a feeling you might say something like that, but wasn't sure. There are definitely people who are in the camp of "if it's not going to snow it might as well torch"

A. Snow band is tucked in pretty tight to the surface low on that depiction B. Can't believe I just commented on the 14 day GFS.

Serious question for a die hard winter guy like yourself. Which would you rather have, the type of regime we've been in lately or something really torchy like a run of 10-15+ above average? Have to pick one.

Magnitude of the cold shot next week seems to be backing off a bit. Lack of snow cover with southward extent once you get into most of IA, IL, etc won't help either.

Hopefully that thing around the 13th-15th produces a nice snow somewhere, but even if it doesn't, I look at it as sort of just the beginning of the more favorable stretch. I mean, it can't get much worse than how the first 10+ days of December are going to play out for most of us, right?

Details are anybody's guess but there has been a pretty good signal for a storm around the 13th-15th. 00z Euro looks ready to bomb the heck out of the thing at 216.

I wish we could fast forward about a week and a half.

Too much energy left in the southwest = more northern stream dominance = crappier system overall with snow displaced farther north. The GFS does not hang it back as much but has slowed enough since yesterday to still sort of screw things up.

Hey, you can see the local sort of screw zone in my area.

Well, 18z GFS still looks decent next week. Euro is hanging back a lot of energy in the southwest which is what leads to its tamer and farther north solution.

I mean, it has been warmer than average recently, but this is kind of cheap for Indian summer . Departures like this are pretty useless at this time of year -- still cool

I thought Angry was gonna be all in on the arctic outbreak.

GFS still pretty chilly next week, though the last couple runs are dropping it in farther east.

Okay look for an ensemble product. At least not suggestive of a perpetual warm disaster without opportunities to snow.

Fair enough

October outsnowed November in Chicago, which has happened several times since records began. Here are the stats for those years and the resulting seasonal snowfall amounts. Year: Oct snow, Nov snow, Total 1913: 1.9", T, 28.2" 1923: 0.7", T, 27.6" 1929: 0.7", 0.1", 58.2" 1952: 3.0", T, 23.4" 1957: 1.9", 0.5", 20.0" 1967: 4.4", 1.2", 28.4" 1989: 6.3", 3.9", 33.8" 1992: 0.3", 0.2", 46.9" 2019: 4.6", 3.7", ??? This year has a head start on all of the years above with the exception of 1989, but overall, I wouldn't read a whole lot into this. Just throwing it out there.

ORD has 8.4". I think you are looking at only the November total but ORD also had the late October storm.

I think we will be less prone to mildups as the month wears on. In general, with cold comes an increased risk of snow, although it can certainly still snow even in a warmer pattern. To me it's going to almost take a perfect storm of everything going wrong in the next 4 weeks for ORD to not increase its snow total by a substantial amount.