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Hoosier

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Everything posted by Hoosier

  1. We had the classic foreign vs American models in the runup to Nov 11. This time it's not so clean cut as the Canadian and UKMET are not as far south as the Euro.
  2. Early returns on the 00z NAM suggest it won't be suppressed.
  3. To add to that, about 50-60% get the accumulating snow into the I-80 corridor of LOT, especially as you get toward Indiana since the band is generally wsw-ene.
  4. It is a red flag when so many EPS members are farther north, in addition to the other operational models. It is a bit of a guessing game right now of course but I would be inclined to lean toward the blended solution, which would be north of the op Euro.
  5. That's even more striking then. All but 5 is around 90%. I was going off the general location of the snow band on each ensemble member. Either way, op is definitely toward the southern end of the range.
  6. A large amount of 12z EPS members are north of the op Euro. Like 70-80%
  7. Didn't expect to see that in this thread.
  8. If model convergence as you get closer means anything, then maybe we'll see a northward bump on the 12z Euro. Sometimes it's not that easy though.
  9. The low end scenario for this seems like a modest event in the OV, while the higher end scenario is a stronger storm a bit farther north.
  10. A whopping low of 13 at ORD this morning. Actually got colder a month ago.
  11. Almost all of the 18z GEFS members have a decent storm and a majority of them are on the northern side, which is kind of interesting because as RC mentioned, the GEFS isn't running with the upgrade of the op GFS.
  12. GFS is on the northern end, but it has actually shifted south.
  13. That's true... they have trended colder. Doesn't negate the concern though. And lack of cold doesn't necessarily mean all out torch, it just means, well, not cold enough.
  14. Gotta be a bit concerned about the lack of cold showing up in the days before the holiday. Do we get it back in time or will we be lamenting about how the grinch stole Christmas?
  15. Yeah it would've been interesting to do composite snowfall maps for each of those months, but not sure how to do that. Despite the December temp composite running on the warm side (around/over 1F warmer than 1981-2010 averages in much of the Midwest for a 20 year composite is actually kinda noteworthy), I suspect a December snow composite over the same period would be closer to if not a bit snowier than average in some areas as there has been a wildly snowy December or two... 2000 immediately comes to mind.
  16. Most of the central-southern sub is going to have more snow in the October 16-November 15 period than in the November 16-December 15 period. With any luck, things will turn right after December 15.
  17. Fine with me at this point. Some of the northern solutions that have been flashed off and on have been a little uncomfortably north.
  18. December has sort of developed a reputation for sucking, or at least not being as good as other winter months. Is there any truth to that? Well, here are composite temperature maps of the last 20 Decembers, Januaries and Februaries. 1999-2018 was used for December since December 2019 is obviously ongoing.
  19. A little update on ORD's precip 48.15" has fallen so far this year. An additional 2.72" is needed to become the wettest year on record for Chicago. From December 11 to December 31, there have been 17 times that Chicago has recorded 2.72" or more, which is a little over 10% of the time. With several more days of little precip to come, it's going to have to get really wet really fast to break the record.
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