Hoosier

It is easy to say in hindsight but unfortunately, Nino Decembers sucking is not a foreign concept (close enough to Nino this month even if we fall short of the technical criteria). Not always of course, but there are a lot of them over the years. No sugar coating it. This month has been pretty bad. I think December 1998 (not a Nino) probably takes the cake for worst combo of mild/snowless December in my memory with several others since then that I would put in a tier right under. Of course we know what happened right when January 1999 came. As much as I like cold/snowy Decembers, it was worth the trade-off in that case.

Find the snow zone

You are probably going to want to be north for what happens around the 25th-26th. Hopefully it gets better for more of the region after that.

There is a good storm signal about a week and a half from now. Could be pretty big for somebody. Whether it happens in time for Christmas is questionable.

Nice band over IKK. Where are ya Chicagowx?

Would call it a higher end light snow right now. Light coating on all surfaces.

Looks that way. Probably going to end up around an inch up to maybe 1.5" here.

Nice looking band down there.

Pumped

Could squeeze out an inch the closer you get to I-80. Not sure how much farther north that 1" line will get, but wouldn't expect it to reach to ORD, etc.

This is it Chicago. You can feel it right? I am lit right now btw. Not a usual occurrence. I rarely drink.

Of course the Canadian rolls in with this right after me going DAB

Driest December 1-14 for Chicago listed below. This is the driest first two weeks of December in the last 30 years. 0.03" 1957 0.07" 1872, 1888, 1896, 1988 0.10" 1883, 1941, 1989 0.11" 1962 0.13" 1933 0.14" 1898, 1929 0.15" 1876, 1913 0.16" 1900, 1930, 2019

This has been a really dry month so far around northern IL/northwest IN. Surprisingly dry because there was really no indication of it going in. The monthly models like the CFS and CanSIPS weren't dry for December. And the CPC outlook went with elevated chances of wetter than average. Not sure what the Euro had. Still could turn it around but time will be getting short as it looks pretty benign for a while.

*clears throat* So after this upcoming storm, almost no location north of I-70 (and maybe even a little south of there) will have less snow than me.

I don't remember the NAM being consistent, on a consistent basis. It blows a lot of setups beyond 36-48 hrs.

Ouch Looking like a DAB around here. Too bad. At least somebody will get a decent snow, namely around I-70.

It doesn't seem like it sometimes, but the overall model skill/ability has improved compared to what it was several years ago. The improvements are even more significant when compared to 15-20 years ago. Stebo gave a good summary... unfortunately there are situations like this where there is a lot going on and it results in greater volatility in the model output.

Ensemble/blended approach is definitely the way to go for now and was the basis of my first call, when what I would call the "range of plausibility" around here is very little to upwards of 6". You know it is a tricky setup when it's got the Euro bouncing around, though admittedly I haven't paid enough attention to off hour Euro runs since they began to know if this is a particularly unusual amount of waffling. After all, running a model 4 times instead of twice per day is going to provide more opportunities for flip flopping.

NAM has been having some weird micro dry holes. Case in point, that spot in southern Iowa.

Can we time a warm-up any worse? Hopefully we lay down a nice snow field in the coming days to maybe slow down/mitigate to some extent.

Just need to surpass 2" here to be the biggest snow this season. Think there's a decent chance. I'd go with a first call of 2-3". Going to be online very little/not at all tomorrow and hopefully will come back to some nice trends.

Not exactly a pillar of consistency in the last few runs. Wonder if we will see a dramatic north distribution with the EPS again.

All part of the plan. Definitely significant differences on this run. Having the vast majority of EPS members farther north at 12z was sort of an indication that a move like this was a distinct possibility.

I would not be that confident at all, but to each their own.