Hoosier

Yeah, Isotherm is off to a decent start. December is going to end up being colder than what he had in the upper Midwest and Northeast but the general warmer than average almost everywhere idea was pretty good. His December and DJF temp and snow maps are below.

Well, in theory that could put the sub in a battle zone of sorts. Hopefully we won't be taking loss after loss with storms always cutting too far west lol

Always nice to have the Lake Michigan cheat code when synoptic ain't working out.

Anyone know what the week by week breakdown is like?

Snowfall records don't go back as far as temperature records for Chicago, so n/a on 1877-78. 1889-90 and 1891-92 weren't good. 1959-60 turned it around better with almost 3 feet between January and March.

Or what if it ties again like Nov/Dec 2018. That would be something. Here are the stats for the 4 years when Dec avg high exceeded Nov average high. It's 4 times, not 3... I missed 1877 earlier. Nov 1877: 46.2 ; Dec 1877: 49.1 Nov 1889: 43.1 ; Dec 1889: 47.2 Nov 1891: 39.4 ; Dec 1891: 41.6 Nov 1959: 41.3 ; Dec 1959: 41.5

I am getting a monthly average high temp of like 41.4 when plugging in the high of 61 from today and LOT's forecast high temps at ORD over the next 5 days. Double checked it and came up with the same number so not sure why the difference. Looks like it will be close in any case.

November average max temp has been colder than December average max temp 3 times in Chicago -- 1889, 1891, 1959. There was a tie in 2018 with both months having an average high temp of 39.7F. As far as this month... through December 25, the average high temp is 40.0. November 2019 had an average high temp of 41.6. My gut feel based on the upcoming forecast high temps is that this month is probably going to come up short of last month but somebody would have to run the math.

Damn, how did I forget the cold at the end of January 2019. Oops.

Not wx related but I have to mention the 8/21/2017 total solar eclipse that I viewed from downstate IL. This is going to sound hokey but it did something to me in those days after. Kinda hard to describe but it was like a feeling of serenity and understanding of the universe.

It's that time, but instead of just a yearly review I thought it would be fun to remember some of the most notable events of the 2010s. First the 2019 events. 2019 didn't have a whole lot of substantial snows for me, and the ones I'm listing are memorable more for being out of season. Anyway... February 11 ice storm April 14 snow w/period of heavy snow Memorial day severe weather Late September heavy rain October 26 heavy rain/Olga interaction October 31 snow November 11 snow Late December torch Now for 2010-2019. This is not meant to be exhaustive but some of the things that immediately come to mind: June 5-6, 2010 tornado outbreak October 2010 "Octobomb" GHD 2011 Spring 2011 Severe/tornadoes Morch 2012. This is arguably the standout event of the decade imo, because it was extreme to historic basically everywhere across the sub and perhaps laid the groundwork for the item below... Summer 2012. Generally the most extreme summer since 1988 or even the dust bowl years in some areas November 17, 2013 tornado outbreak Early January 2014 snowstorm/extreme cold 2013-14 winter overall GHD 2015 February 2015 extreme cold. I'd rank this very high on the events of the decade list February 2017 warmth March 14, 2017... heaviest snow rates I can remember September 2017 warmth February 2018 snowy stretch What are some of your top events?

There has been a noticeable trend toward secondary low development late weekend/early next week across the guidance. Unfortunately cold air doesn't get in very quickly as currently modeled.

Actually had a Christmas brush fire up the road from here (relatively speaking).

My sister mentioned something along those lines that I hadn't thought of... well, not the 6" storm because we didn't get that much snow on Halloween, but the weirdness of having snow on Halloween and such warm temps on Christmas.

Even crazier than the Florida snowstorm run

Should be ORD's turn tomorrow. The warm start will help against any possible mitigating issues. As Gino pointed out, it is the low hanging fruit record for December.

Certainly a memorably warm day even with falling short of the record high. Merry Christmas to y'all.

If you're farther southeast, the only hope for this upcoming storm is if some additional energy can come around and sort of force the surface low to redevelop farther south/east. There are suggestions of it on some models so I guess we'll see.

Figures. Remember my comment about the GFS tending to overamp but probably nailing this one.

At least the near shore temps should come up a bit. Probably not major though. I think there would have to be a real junk airmass to still be causing issues near the lake in January.

Yeah that was quite a shift. Just when you think you know the models. And the end of the 00z Euro has a major bomb in the making. Would've been nice to see that go out another 12-24 hours lol

The other way to look at it is that it is a pretty anomalous stretch of warm Christmases that can't keep going.

One of these is gonna be way off

Congrats Jacksonville

LC actually seems like one of the better long range guys over the years. At least he doesn't try to spin toward cold/snow on a regular basis, so this is more encouraging than somebody like JB saying it.