Hoosier

I think it depends on whose temps you are talking about. What happens globally may not be reflected regionally or locally. We can still get colder than average winters in the Midwest no matter what is going on elsewhere. But for the sake of argument, let's say Detroit starts seeing a significant warming trend in winter temps. Snowfall is fickle but that would probably start to eat into the snowfall average eventually. Josh or someone can check it out but if you look at Detroit's snowiest 10 or 20 winters, I bet you aren't going to find that many warmer than average ones in there... especially more than 1F above avg. And the warmer than average winters probably lean toward mediocrity or worse for total snowfall. Of course the farther north you are, the more you can get away with warming.

ORD is now officially in the hole for snow to date for the first time this fall/winter... 8.8" with 9.0" being average. The minor snow tomorrow into Tuesday could perhaps get it back to average or some tenths above but pretty much inevitable that the deficit will build again after that.

HRRR and NAM have cut back on qpf. Whether they are right, who knows. I'm gonna laugh if we have to wait on wraparound snow to get to 2nd place.

This is a shame. If you told me there'd be a bombing low on this track in December, I'd take it every day of the week. Unfortunately it's just not going to work out as a significant snow maker this far south. I think the initial low farther west is the problem in this case. If that didn't exist and were replaced by a high, would likely get a much quicker change to snow.

Until you have experienced 32 with non freezing rain because the rates are too heavy. I'd say that is the worst.

Pretty crappy overall though as it kind of gets sheared out.

Fantasy range storm is going to be farther north on the 12z Euro.

Temps have been between 55-57 at ORD since 5 am. Low 60s were forecast for the high which is looking questionable at this point. This is going to hurt the chances of December's average high temperature coming in warmer than November as a high well into the 60s would've been ideal given expected highs on Mon/Tue. Every little bit matters at this point.

Looks like a period of strong winds in parts of IN/OH/MI overnight/Monday as the surface low rapidly deepens. Could even have a brief period of high wind warning criteria gusts imo. Will be curious to see if the NWS offices start to hit this harder.

Most of the global/non NAM and HRRR guidance had less than 0.75" at ORD with round one, so higher models definitely were better. Round 2 would really have to underperform to prevent 2nd place.

60 as far north as Quincy right now.

I mean, it will be an even more pathetically sad commentary on this month if >0.3" can't fall.

At least we'll be dead by then.

Calling it now. Biggest snow at ORD on Mon-Tue since Veterans Day.

Need an additional 1.68" for sole possession of 2nd. You are more optimistic than I am of getting there.

Yes, it can and has happened. Dec 2012/Jan 2013 was brutal in Chicago. More recently, Jan/Feb 2017 took futility to a new level with 0.6" TOTAL.

Shouldn't be hard to get more snow than December. Shouldn't be.

Update on this. The 28th-31st has to put up a number of 190 for the combined high temperatures to tie the monthly average high for November (41.6) and 193 to break the November average high. Today should be a 11:59 pm high, and perhaps crucially, Monday should have a midnight high... just how high is the question. If we were having to rely on the daytime high on Monday, the monthly would be all but certain to come up short. Midnight high just might bail it out. I think the current LOT forecast for the 31st (35 degrees) is a bit too warm.

Really goes nuts with deepening... probably too nuts lol. This thing is sort of like being in the mid Atlantic and watching a miller b develop too late and hammer Boston.

I almost want January to be bad just to see the full scale beavis meltdown.

After yesterday's record high of 61 at ORD -- which broke the previous record high of 55 -- the only day left in December with a record high in the 50s is 12/22.

A couple zones where December wasn't a train wreck

I'm focused on my inch man.

Too early for Ron Paul?

Saturday night/Sunday morning looks ridiculously mild in the warm sector.