Hoosier

If anybody is holding out hope for the weekend system, the northern stream vort that will play an influence won't be in the US until early Friday (Canada for tomorrow's runs).

Understatement. One of the biggest flip flops you will ever see on that model within 3 days.

Still have poor agreement on the 12z runs. I hope the 12z Euro looks like the 6z run.

Happy happy new year

Can't believe the 00z Euro came in even more jacked for the weekend.

18z NAM looks pretty bad. Maybe where we want it at this point though lol?

Significant change from 00z. It is in the better window in terms of skill scoring but would still like to see another run or two of this.

Sort of a questionable evolution with bouncing around between more of a coastal or inland low for a while, but we'll take it.

12z Euro coming in with a decent storm this weekend.

Check your barometer, cyclone

Lake Michigan causing rain 75 miles inland in January would be something I don't remember seeing before.

I refuse to believe there would be marine influence to that extent in January. I mean come on.

mimillman -- ORD would need a high tomorrow of 38 to tie and 41 to break November's average high temp. Not happening, but still rather impressive to have the December 2019 average high temp be that close to November.

That is a bad look for the east. Might be ok for the Midwest, at least parts of it.

That's true... as we know, if you change one thing on a severe wx day, it can knock it back from historic to something less than that. That's why the high end days are uncommon and the super high end days are even more rare. Something to consider about Morch. It was about a 10 day period of extreme warmth bookended with lesser positive departures. If that period had fallen from, say, March 27 to April 5, would it have been quite the same? The March departures wouldn't have been as ridiculous. Unlike a tornado outbreak, we are slaves to the calendar when it comes to extreme monthly temp anomalies.

All I wanna know is if Joe is on board with a DAB.

That's the control, right?

November and December really screwed it up. Average precip in those 2 months would've put ORD at 51.52", which would've broken the record. Instead, won't even get to 50" and will finish 3rd.

This is some large coverage of N. Usually above or below will dominate.

Yeah, it's a risky pattern for the heart of the sub. Could pay off but I'd be very guarded. Not a chronic torch at least.

It is interesting to ponder which event is more likely to happen again, Morch or a tornado outbreak like April 27, 2011. I'd actually go with the tornado outbreak being more likely to repeat. One, we have already seen an outbreak that is relatively comparable or even more impressive in metrics besides the total tornado count (talking about 4/3/74 of course). The other thing is that tornado outbreaks are singular weather events. I'd argue you need even more to go right to get such extreme warm departures in a month.

Underperform incoming. Not sure it will even be close enough to 2nd place for wraparound precip to save it.

0.25" at ORD from this round so far, which moves them into 3rd wettest year. 0.49" more needed to get to 2nd place.