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Hoosier

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Everything posted by Hoosier

  1. Hoosier
    The voice of reason. Nothing off the table but it would take a pretty bad luck evolution for the LOT cwa to miss out on impactful snow/ice.
  2. Hoosier
    Reminder that Euro forecast soundings are available on pivotal.
  3. Hoosier
    Sign me up for that. Rainy to start but then all that snow falls in like 12 hours around here.
  4. Hoosier
    We have been in a warm to torchy pattern, but there is actually some pretty legit cold behind the front especially compared to what we have seen lately. It will be interesting to see how far the subfreezing temps lag behind the surface front.
  5. Hoosier
    This is track dependent of course but wouldn't rule out some good ice somewhere in the metro. There will be runoff for sure if rates are that heavy, but that is a lot of precip falling in the ice area. It's trickier near the lake and especially in the core of Chicago... I'd say less ice there than farther inland in practically any scenario.
  6. Hoosier
    That is quite a combo. Can't recall something like that in the metro off the top of my head so it is either model silliness that won't verify or a rare/historic type event.
  7. Hoosier
    I think that is right up to a point, but if the southern stream wave slows down too much, it will give the confluence a chance to weaken, sort of like the 12z GEM.
  8. Hoosier
    That is some nice ridging in the east/southeast. I am uncommitted for now like Chi Storm but do feel like this has a real chance of ending up farther north.
  9. Hoosier
    Wait, Chi storm is going with rainer? I couldn't tell because he mentioned what the seasonal trends have been which would imply weaker/suppressed.
  10. Hoosier
    Alek, you have support from the GEFS
  11. Hoosier
    Upper jet support anyone?
  12. Hoosier
    I don't know, I think those water temps might be cold enough to get ice to the lake but this is assuming the ice band ends up somewhere in the metro.
  13. Hoosier
    Could we do ice lakeside? Near shore temps are about 33-37.
  14. Hoosier
    He will say ride the Euro if and when there is a Euro run that has a big rainer in Chicago.
  15. Hoosier
    The Super Tuesday storm. I think you can make arguments either way -- north trend or south -- for this one. As has been pointed out, the seasonal tendency has been to end up weaker/less phased than the med/long range progs suggest. But since we aren't really looking for a phase in this case, perhaps we won't see the same magnitude of petering out that we've become used to.
  16. Hoosier
    If we get as wide of a snow zone as the Euro portrays, take it and run.
  17. Hoosier
    Looking at Thu-Fri to really start refining the details. With any luck the rug won't get pulled out (if not imby then overall) before then.
  18. Hoosier
    I suppose there are no absolutes but generally speaking, I think slower solutions are more likely to end up farther north. In that case, the northern stream can't put as much of a cap on how far north this can come.
  19. Hoosier
    Definitely run the risk of a fairly narrow area of snow with this type of evolution, but it has been hard to get a good phase to benefit the heart of the sub or to even get much action in general, so it is nice to see something. The ice potential looks like it could be intriguing but way too early to really dig into that.
  20. Hoosier
    Usual caveat about the GEFS not being upgraded but virtually all of them have something.
  21. Hoosier
    A second ice storm in the same area out around day 10.
  22. Hoosier
    Look at that heavy precip feeding into the ice area. Would probably lose a significant amount to runoff though with those kind of rates unless temps are way below freezing.
  23. Hoosier
    I drink maybe a handful of times a year and don't even keep the stuff around. Try to be careful with what I do as I had an aunt who basically drank herself to death. I didn't take personal offense to Alek's comment but it can be a sensitive subject. On a weather related note, the ICON looks pretty crappy for the storm. Let's see what the GFS does.
  24. Hoosier
    Hopefully this shifts south for Brownsville
  25. Hoosier
    Only about 5 more days to run out the clock on model runs lol This may not work out in the end but at least for now, it is set up in an okay way. The northern stream sort of scoots by harmlessly without acting to shunt the emerging southern stream wave really far south. One possibility is that the northern stream is more aggressive and acts as more of a suppressing agent but we aren't really seeing that on the latest runs.
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