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Hoosier

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Everything posted by Hoosier

  1. Hoosier
    I gotta find some little way to appreciate this thing, so let's shoot for 4" of rain with temps in the 30s. Never seen that before.
  2. Hoosier
    The cold front gets a bit farther south initially on the 18z NAM, but this could reverse itself later in the run if that southern wave comes out amped up.
  3. Hoosier
    It's a little time consuming to search for but yeah, we are dead of winter now so it would be interesting to see the last time it happened in Jan or Feb. The 2006 storm does show that snow can stick after a ridiculous amount of rain... attn Alek.
  4. Hoosier
    Was curious about the last time there was anything even remotely like this at ORD... let's say over 2" precip and some accumulating snow. Well, it was 11/29 to 12/1/2006. 3.42" precip with 6.2" snow.
  5. Hoosier
    Another model with seemingly farther than usual displaced precip type zones. A lot of systems won't have freezing rain into Kenosha when the surface low is around I-70.
  6. Hoosier
    Non-ICON model consensus of 3-4" qpf around here. Impressive for a January system though as has been mentioned, will have to be mindful of some potential moisture transport robbing.
  7. Hoosier
    I don't know if it's just me but it seems like the modeled precip type transition zones are lagging behind the surface low a bit more than usual. So that UK track is great for the area but just wonder if mixed precip may hang on longer than it seems, especially east.
  8. Hoosier
    Implied solid hit for sure. Lots of precip in those timeframes. Question would be any warm layers on the southeast fringe.
  9. Hoosier
    I am sort of wondering about the ice potential in the LOT area (in a narrow band) as the main low pressure swings into IN. Precip rates look a bit lower then so could at least have more efficient accretion. See NAM after 72 hrs. Tricky situation though.
  10. Hoosier
    If only... move over 1967 lol. Unfortunately this isn't the one to break that total.
  11. Hoosier
    Pretty wild run for parts of the area. As far as ORD, that much rain and that much snow is not easy to pull off in the same storm.
  12. Hoosier
    Way down there
  13. Hoosier
    GFS handles the trough a lot differently than the Euro... much more neutral than the very pronounced neg tilt on the Euro. 18z Euro will be out in a while so we'll get an idea of whether it doubles down on the 12z run.
  14. Hoosier
    That bit of snow out east shows that it can snow even with hostile indices. The AO is raging positive and the NAO is positive. You'd definitely rather not have that combo though lol.
  15. Hoosier
    Loses the neg tilt after that
  16. Hoosier
    The model comparison you've all been waiting for. The 18z NAM at 84 hours vs the 12z Euro at 90.
  17. Hoosier
    How many are northwest of the op run?
  18. Hoosier
    I browse these threads sometimes and have seen Tip mention the 588 over Miami thing or something like that as having a deleterious effect on shortwaves. Tip, would it make something as amped up as this rolling through the Plains-Lakes less likely to verify or am I misunderstanding?
  19. Hoosier
    Well and to be clear, I would count a somewhat modest shift from ORD to Gary as a south shift even though it wouldn't have a whole lot of sensible wx impact unless you are near one of the precip type transition zones.
  20. Hoosier
    Impressive look aloft
  21. Hoosier
    Yeah, but they are kind of inferior. Just saying. If I had to bet on whether the Euro would shift north or south of the 12z on future runs, I'd probably lean south. I'll admit some seasonal bias could be affecting my thoughts as well.
  22. Hoosier
    Bump troll later but in my humble opinion, the 12z Euro is about the northwestern limit for this system. It closes off and takes on a substantial negative tilt to get this track. There is also an upstream kicker so I'm not sure how much farther northwest it can go.
  23. Hoosier
    My yard floods at least excuse imaginable so 3-4" precip would be interesting.
  24. Hoosier
    Euro really going to town. Sig ice in northern IL on this run.
  25. Hoosier
    Somebody was arguing that a cutter is something that goes more west-east... can't remember if it was nwohweather or someone else. But that is definitely not the typical way it is thought of, even by people outside the region. For instance, the New England crowd would call something going to the Lakes a cutter.
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