Hoosier

It's been in the teens/20s lately. I think the ground will get icy.

I've never seen anything like the GFS modeled in my backyard... about 4.5" qpf with well over 1" of it as freezing rain (NAM also has a band of 4"+ here). Can't take the modeled ice at face value but just commenting on the output itself. Crazy crazy stuff and helps to make up a bit for all the boring times.

I think it does include freezing rain too even though it doesn't say.

Wow, lol

Another situation where TT maps will be useless because of all the mixed precip. They really gotta fix that.

Massive differences in sensible outcome around here between the NAM and GFS. 12z was really the first model cycle to have good RAOB sampling of this thing.

The 6z NAM actually looks like it increased ice amounts in N IL. Very concerning because a lot could be lost to runoff but it would still end up being a big deal in tandem with the wind.

Lake Michigan shore is going to take a beating even if this backs down a little. Most of this will probably get down to the surface with it only being at 925 mb. A bad combination with the ice. I think excessive wind during freezing rain actually hurts accretion rates a bit, but perhaps somebody can chime in. I think the most "ideal" scenario is to accrete and then bring in the big winds.

Incredible map. 70 into central OH? And keep in mind this is after normal peak heating.

I don't know who is doing the overnight at LOT but good luck to whomever it is. Huge differences in sensible outcomes for the area with the GEM adding to the uncertainty.

Just missed the more significant ice here with that one. Had a lot of sleet.

Significant differences in the placement of the 2m 32F line on the GFS and NAM as early as around 60 hours. Often the NAM will be colder at the surface, but not this time.

LOT is going to have their hands full with this one. Almost guaranteed sig ice or snow.

GFS has a big ice band too. Overall concerning trends for a band of sig-major ice even with allowing for reduction of the clown maps.

GFS should be somewhat west based on the look so far. ... famous last words

Even in some of the areas that are mostly/all rain, going to be a mess of standing water turning to ice Saturday night/Sunday.

ICON actually shuts off precip in quite a bit of IL for a while. Note that it only does snow or rain. Does not resolve sleet/freezing rain.

00z NAM digging for gold in the southwest a little less than 18z. If trends continue through the run then perhaps a result sort of in between 12z and 18z, but a lot more left to come in.

Moisture outpaces the subfreezing airmass up to that point. It would have ramifications for exactly where the zone sets up later Fri into Sat... IF it's right.

00z HRRR is pretty bullish with the eastward progress of the front and cold air seeping in behind. Use with caution that far out though.

For LOT cwa, I think there will be a band of >0.25" ice accrual. Could be significantly more but hard to say. Certainly discounting the apocalyptic ice maps given the negative factors that have been mentioned. Where it ends up is the question. If the GFS starts trending the other way then it would put it through the heart of the metro or perhaps into the southern metro.

How's the speed compared to 12z?

Ok, I searched January for 2" precip, 1.0" snow storm combos in Chicago history. I know, low bar on the snow amount lol. But even setting a measly threshold of 1" snow, it's rare... like really rare. We'll throw this one on the list even though it started on New Years Eve... 12/31/1890 to 1/2/1891: 2.03" precip, 3.0" snow and... 1/26/1967 to 1/27/1967: 2.40" precip, 23.0" snow So I'm not sure what to think. Either something pretty unusual is on the verge of happening or the 2" precip amount or 1" snow amount will get derailed. Guess we'll find out in a few days.

Despite my debbie downer post about 4" of rain, we really don't need the NAM/Euro to be off by a whole lot in the grand scheme for a better outcome.

Best model