Hoosier

Something I never do but I guarantee this frontal position is too far north around the southern tip of Lake Michigan. Don't see it happening with the chilly lake and precip and main surface low so far away.

Big time Lakeshore Hazard Message National Weather Service Chicago IL 938 PM CST Thu Jan 9 2020 ILZ006-014-INZ001-002-101145- /O.CON.KLOT.LS.W.0001.200111T0600Z-200112T1200Z/ Lake IL-Cook-Lake IN-Porter- 938 PM CST Thu Jan 9 2020 ...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Significant lakeshore flooding is expected. Strong north to northeast winds gusting up to 40 to 50 mph will build waves to 12 to 18 feet with occasional waves up to 23 feet. * WHERE...The shoreline areas of Cook and Lake Counties in Illinois and Lake and Porter Counties in Indiana. * WHEN...Late Friday night through late Saturday night. * IMPACTS...The winds and large battering waves combined with near record high lake levels could exacerbate already significant beach and shoreline erosion sustained in the past several months. Vulnerable structures along the shore may be heavily damaged. In addition, flood prone paths and roads along the lake will be susceptible to lengthy closures due to the expected long duration of high winds and waves. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Lakeshore Flood Warning means that flooding is occurring or imminent along the lake. Residents on or near the shore in the warned area should be alert for rising water...and take appropriate action to protect life and property. && $$ - Izzi

I think part of the wave dipped offshore for 00z. Might explain some of the model funkiness. Or maybe not.

Recent/seasonal trend trying to get the last laugh.

Sig difference for sure. Notably weaker sfc low vs 12z.

NMM not siding with the ARWs.

Not sure what to make of this lol

Although not to the extent of the 00z ARW, the ARW2 came in with something sort of similar.

00z GFS still hanging on with more snow/ice farther southeast.

That would screw up a lot of forecasts.

Been run after run of it on multiple models in the area I mentioned, including the ECMWF. It will be a fail if amounts like the 00z NAM verify. The NAM can be kind of goofy even close in though so not totally buying yet.

Central/southern LOT. I want my 4", or at least over 3"

NAM is a bit lame precip wise farther north. Relatively speaking.

Sfc low probably east of Lake Michigan on this run.

Might get an east tick on the NAM. Not sure yet.

I was thinking over.

Hitting on what Ricky talked about earlier, this is sort of a muddled sleet/freezing rain zone

Pretty clear LOT is discounting the GFS based on how they did their headlines.

Alek lakeside bubble protection

Cooler by the lake season (On that note, the GEM frontal position tomorrow is laughable)

Good stuff. Looks like southwest of Streamwood? The southern part of the modeled freezing rain area seems like a better bet for less sleet, but sfc temps would be more marginal.

Maybe. I remember dropping to like 31 for a while in the 12/28/15 event. I'm going to assume lake temps were similar back then (later in the season now but we are coming off a very warm period) but who knows, maybe the cold layer was better back then or the wind direction was subtly different.

The GFS and Euro surface low tracks are practically identical, but there are notable differences in the sfc/near sfc temps. Would love to get RC's take on the sfc temps.

Is there a "it's not happening" meme?

Small differences affecting very populated areas