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Hoosier

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  1. Hoosier
    Here are the Jan high pressure records. No data for Canada but going to assume those would be > 1050 mb given the numbers in the northern tier of the US. The high with this is progged in the mid 1040s or so once it's in Ontario, so it's up there in terms of intensity but not really near the records.
  2. Hoosier
    I think it's time to set some criteria for rainer. Raining after hours of snow/mix doesn't count.
  3. Hoosier
    The surface high is pretty stout. We get them at that strength in that position sometimes but it is still fairly impressive. So, would not be shocked if the precip onset timing slows a bit. Models do try to account for dry air and when it becomes moist enough to generate qpf but still could take a little longer than they figure.
  4. Hoosier
    Will be interesting to see how long the NAM keeps the column below freezing.
  5. Hoosier
    More or less honing in on a general solution it seems. Thump snow chances best near/north of I-80, fairly wide area gets some ice due to northward progression of waa.
  6. Hoosier
    Having trouble with making a gif on TT but anyway, here is a visual representation of the evap cooling. The band of colder 850 mb temps extending nw-se is near the leading edge of the precip. There will be evap cooling initially of course as the airmass saturates, so the question is how long it can fight off increasing waa.
  7. Hoosier
    I actually didn't remember. Thanks for the reminder. In regards to your previous post about faster than modeled surface warming with ESE/SE flow, I'd almost count on it as it sure seems like models are too slow to warm temps in these situations when there's any type of southerly component to the flow. But if the warming aloft also happens quicker, then it could sort of cancel out and still result in a decent period of icing.
  8. Hoosier
    Seems pretty bullish on evap cooling to maintain snow longer in N IL, but yeah, that looks a little precarious.
  9. Hoosier
    Yeah, should spread it around. A good number of the analogs had 3 hours of freezing rain and some had 6 hours of freezing rain generally either side of the I-80 corridor.
  10. Hoosier
    Virtually every CIPS analog to this event had a band of ice.
  11. Hoosier
    Where this ejects from the Rockies will be an important factor. If it comes out around far se CO/panhandle of OK, then that would make a difference compared to farther north.
  12. Hoosier
    One thing this one shouldn't have is a lot of convection in the south, which is nice to not have to be so concerned about. Food poisoning sucks.
  13. Hoosier
    GFS has shifted south the past couple runs.
  14. Hoosier
    Come on seasonal weaker/south trend. We need ya.
  15. Hoosier
    Annoying storm. But as Baum suggested, should kick off a pattern that has winter threats not just relegated to the far northern tier of the sub, so there's that.
  16. Hoosier
    Ice baby
  17. Hoosier
    Beavis, did you used to live in Canada or something and are longing for those winters? Your standards for a "good" winter in Chicago will be met about 10 or 20 percent of the time, if that. Most people ground their expectations based on where they live. For some reason you don't.
  18. Hoosier
    The Canadian high is progged around/over 1040 mb. It is sliding east which isn't good. Only way I could see all rain would be if the timing is different and it slides east even faster out ahead of the storm.
  19. Hoosier
    Appears we'll actually have some antecedent cold to dislodge, so I don't think it's wall to wall rain storm locally. Other than that who knows.
  20. Hoosier
    Think I buy it now
  21. Hoosier
    Looking possible. Temp has been stuck just above freezing here for hours.
  22. Hoosier
    At the end of the day, qpf is still one of the lower skilled attributes of the models. But when you have a consensus for certain amounts, it is easy to get lulled into thinking it will happen. So yes, there was underachievement depending on where you are, but the high totals are verifying or will come close in some areas.
  23. Hoosier
    All indications are for a period of mod-hvy snow later, but questions about how long mixing hangs on and temps hanging around 32 for part of the snow (thanks to marine influence) make me hesitant to go above 2-3". If both of the above factors break favorably, then could get a bit more.
  24. Hoosier
    Yeah. Large/thick branch that probably could've killed somebody fell down the street here.
  25. Hoosier
    Looks like it will be the 2" precip that fails. Only 1.15" at ORD so far for the 10th-11th and not going to get enough precip later to get to 2"
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