Hoosier

Is it the wrong perception that the city of Buffalo has underperformed the forecasts so far? Seems like the band has been more locked in than expected farther south.

Mark my words... Detroit will get something like that pic before the end of civilization.

Yes, and I wasn't here for it.

Looking forward to your next in-depth pattern post. I agree overall that December is unlikely to be the dumpster fire that we have come to know lately, but I just don't spend much time on long range stuff so I'd put more stock in what you and other knowledgeable folks are thinking.

The Lake Michigan "equivalent" of Buffalo, so to speak, would be roughly between Gary-Michigan City (or maybe into the extreme sw corner of MI) where you can just firehose it in there in a single band with rates of several inches per hour when LES parameters are very good. The problem is that the duration is more limited, so it doesn't rack up the insane totals that the Buffalo area can get. It can pile up quickly while it lasts though --- recall Michigan City receiving about 30" on 12/19/04. I've been in 4-5" per hour on a couple of occasions with LES off of southern Lake Michigan. Didn't have thunder then, but I really didn't care lol

Sure

If we get to ~December 10 with it being mild and no change on the horizon, then I'd be concerned about the remainder of the month.

It's November 18.

Curious to see what the max rates will be. Is that about it or could it go higher? I haven't looked into that (and besides, the locals may know better).

Glad you like it. It's still a little early, but I think this is the year we shake things up and have a more wintry December than what's happened lately.

I guess Buffalo can't handle some snow.

Man that is a photogenic circulation to say the least.

Getting a bit gusty in these snow showers.

The Euro basically plunges all of the energy for our potential storm into Mexico, where it sits and spins away.

Yesterday's 12z Euro had a 965 mb low in the Lakes.

Ahhh ok. Makes sense.

Snow area almost looks like that storm from November 2015. Models have been flopping around on this one though, so way too early to get a good idea.

I'm confused. Like, why? What is the mechanism where a warm lake would cause the band to end up farther north? On another note, I can't image getting fringed by something like this. What a disappointment that would be. Sure, you could take a quick drive, but it's just not quite the same as having it in your backyard.

Must have seen the new GFS.

Ended up getting some whitening on paved surfaces too.

Some minor accumulation on colder surfaces.

Flakeage ongoing

The area off of southern Lake Michigan could possibly pull off something like Buffalo if everything lined up just right, but the main problem is duration. Even when parameters are relatively similar to what the Buffalo area will have in the upcoming event, the wind direction just doesn't stay locked in northerly (or close to that) for long enough.

Gonna be living vicariously through you guys. Good luck all.