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Hoosier

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Everything posted by Hoosier

  1. Hoosier
    Incredible depiction on the 12z Euro. 974 mb low in Arkansas (yes Arkansas) moving northeast, though doesn't strengthen much further. 70 kts in the CCB as it moves from the MS Valley into the Ohio Valley.
  2. Hoosier
    LOT may need a flood headline for Cook.
  3. Hoosier
    Definitely keeping an eye on this one. My mom is currently driving through central IL heading for SE Missouri.
  4. Hoosier
    Looking at radar trends, the more southern placement of the heaviest precip axis does not seem particularly likely to verify. Imo. GFS/Canadian (and now 12z Euro) may end up being closer to reality in terms of placement.
  5. Hoosier
    32/30 with moderate freezing rain at Waukegan. Mentioned it yesterday but that has been one of my prime areas of interest in the LOT cwa. You know areas farther inland in far northern IL have a better shot to hold at or below freezing throughout, but can those areas closer to the lake hold on to freezing temps as the afternoon wears on and how much icing will there be?
  6. Hoosier
    Already power outages in Hillsdale county. This thing is going to be a disaster in MI.
  7. Hoosier
  8. Hoosier
    Oh Morch, where art thou going?
  9. Hoosier
    Still have some spread in placement of heaviest precip. In general, the Euro(06z run)/NAM/short range models are farther south than the GFS and Canadian models.
  10. Hoosier
    Doubt there are any road issues, but Valparaiso was at freezing and reporting freezing rain or unknown precip for like 4 hours.
  11. Hoosier
    Had a brief period earlier with temps at 32. Now above freezing.
  12. Hoosier
    Looking at obs from central IL, temps are generally dropping a couple degrees in the hour after precip onset.
  13. Hoosier
    If we had the system early next week later in the season... ho-ly hell.
  14. Hoosier
    That system early next week isn't much to look at from a wintry perspective, but I'm still a bit interested in seeing if pans out. Don't get a surface low of that progged strength that far south in the sub very often at all.
  15. Hoosier
    Pics or it didn't happen. Stay safe
  16. Hoosier
    When you look at current dewpoints, it's almost hard to believe that we will have dews in the low 30s in parts of northern IL/IN in about 7-10 hours... as these areas will be north of the warm front. But aloft, we have massive moisture transport from the southwest. You can run a loop of 850 mb dewpoints to get a sense of that. So I expect those types of dews (or at least something close to that) to pan out.
  17. Hoosier
    Clouds helping to keep temps from dropping. You also want to look at dews/wet bulb temps. Still have a decent temp/dewpoint spread at CID with dews in the lower 20s.
  18. Hoosier
    .333
  19. Hoosier
    I've gotten as skeptical as anybody when it comes to this winter, but honestly just kind of have a gut feeling that I haven't seen my biggest snow yet this season (of course the bar is pretty low)
  20. Hoosier
    Indications are March won't be tame. Just a question of details and who gets what.
  21. Hoosier
    Alek nightmare scenario
  22. Hoosier
    Not the strongest surface high that we've seen, but there's a nice cold/dry air reservoir in Michigan/Wisconsin to pull from. Dewpoints are in the teens or lower in basically the entirety of those states.
  23. Hoosier
    The middle to high end range of their forecast ice amounts would be warning criteria. Will be interesting to see the reasoning in the afd.
  24. Hoosier
    My understanding of FRAM is that it's based on 3 main things -- wetbulb temps, wind speeds and precip rates. I'm still unclear on whether it accounts for warm layer temp. The wind is pretty favorable for enhanced accretion, but the precip rates and wetbulb temps aren't (too heavy at times and too borderline, respectively). FRAM will be better than using the freezing rain qpf maps in this case, but it would still make sense to go under that imo.
  25. Hoosier
    The 18z NAM is trending this way as well, though still has the placement a bit farther north.
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