Hoosier
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Or maybe the new snow squall warning product. Duration may be too long for that though?
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Was hoping to hold it off until around midnight here. Might be tough.
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25 dbz or bust
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If I had to guess, I'd say the most likely area to get warning criteria ice in the LOT cwa is roughly in a box from LaSalle to Chesterton to Rensselaer to Pontiac. Would not be shocked if it got farther north though.
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Snow has started here. Yay
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If there was any doubt about the warm surge, Quincy has already flipped to freezing rain. This is even faster than the typically aggressive NAM and more like the HRRR.
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Hello
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Still trying to moisten here. Should be soon.
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It's subtle but the HRRR keeps incrementally delaying the northward progress of the 32F line. Whether this is what actually happens, time will tell.
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Possibly kind of like the 2/12/2019 event.
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Eh, not the biggest fan of flying. I do it when I have to lol
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Afternoon LOT afd mentioned possible 0.25"+ band of ice but confidence too low for warning.
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The storm that I remember best is the one at the end of January 2002. That one had higher snow amounts in the area though. I had about 8" of snow, a half inch or so of sleet and a really minor glaze of ice (was in Lake IN back then about 5 miles from where I am now) as the heavier ice was literally only a few miles south. That was just a moisture firehose... go back and look at radars from back then.
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Think I'm going to stay up really late. Hopefully some of you will keep me company. Screw sleep. This will probably be the best action imby so far this winter and I want to see how much ice happens.
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We can get some pretty wild thermal gradients in this sub. Not now though.
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1.5"/hr with small flakes is doing some work.
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A couple hours either way seems like it may matter in this setup. The ice amounts are right around the point where it goes from more of a nuisance to having more significant problems especially when factoring in the wind. Also how does laying down wettish snow onto the trees first affect things.
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Have to wonder if laying down this area of snow may slow the temp rise a bit too. It will literally be happening immediately prior to changing over so not "old" snow. Then again we will have pretty decent waa so maybe it won't really have an impact.
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Still 32 in KC. SGF is 32 with zr and southeast winds gusting to 44 mph.
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imo, you could make an argument for a warning in the LOT cwa. Even though the snow and/or ice amount could fall just short, there should be an overlap corridor that gets close on both counts. Plus some wind to add to impacts. I get why they held off though.
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Fwiw, Chi shore and the crib have dipped to 35 and 31 respectively.
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HRRR has been among the more bullish models around the I-80 corridor of IL/IN... hope it's right.
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Looking at upstream obs, Kansas City has been stuck at 32 with zr for 2+ hours. Will be watching for some clues on how long it takes to get above freezing... and they have a diurnal advantage right now unlike farther east later.
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If we're going to see changes to the forecast for LOT, the most likely thing would seem to be higher ice amounts farther north.
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Actually did back off a bit on the southern edge. I should know since that model was most favorable and so razor thin here.
