Hoosier

Still wouldn't be surprised to see a localized 3-6" somewhere near the shore, but more generally should be a 1-3" type thing. These amounts mostly favored in Lake/Porter though possibly clipping Cook.

The last system was relatively easy to make a general long range call on. This one is a more convoluted setup with marginal boundary layer conditions. I do think a band of sig snow is possible somewhere. As for here, it appears that rain, snow, and possibly even a little ice could all occur during the period.

Hey hey Band creeping up the IL shore toward the end so the Chi guys may want to keep an eye out

Indeed Do you have any thoughts on this one? The parameters look ok, and there is a decent amount of omega in the DGZ. Looks like it may tend to hug the shore with time. May be going out on a limb but would not be shocked at a localized 3-6" within a few miles of the shore somewhere in Lake/Porter.

Don't do it Hoosier. Don't start to believe you will get enough snow to cover the grass

So, everyone ready to dive in to the late week/weekend storm?

Yeah, I need northerly flow or at least some minor variation of that to have a shot. So not a common occurrence but not very rare either. Just haven't had a setup where that wind direction and good parameters and long enough residence time have come together.

About 2" It is pretty incredible. I mean, I'm near I-80 and close to Lake Michigan, not in the south. Even if synoptic isn't going favorably, there is a backup option in the form of a decent lake effect band making it here, but nope.

That looks a lot like it does here. Well, I have a little more snow. Still waiting on a 3" snowfall. I don't really keep records and trying to remember your first 3" snowfall each winter is sort of an odd thing, but this has to be among the longest it has taken. And there really isn't one in sight. Some models are trying to tease the lake effect band this far west on Monday, but even if it does make it this far west, I'm not expecting much. Yesterday's storm was made worse by the fact that a number of models (granted not unanimous) were suggesting 3-5" here, which of course didn't pan out.

Temp has reached freezing here. There is some odd stuff going on. IND is still reporting 32 and freezing rain but it's 35 in Muncie.

Wind has dramatically backed off here... odd. Looking out the window, can see the glaze in a tree against the street light.

30 here with that big slug of moisture moving in.

Of course it is.

That is a wide area of 32-33 temps

Have switched to freezing rain. Based on models and adjusting for current obs, don't expect to go above freezing until around 10z at the earliest and could be lingering around 32-33 for a while.

I'm so screwed.

Update is still there for me. Could've upgraded to a warning imo, at least for the ice around/south of I-80. Not necessarily a clear cut thing but there should be some quarter inch amounts and the wind will add to the impact. The negative factor for upgrading in an uncertain situation like this is that it is an overnight icing event and if a tree falls in the forest...

I tend to pick out target cities upstream in icing setups, and the latest one I was watching was STL. They just got to 33.

Now we rip.

Waiting for it. So, you gonna take the under on this?

If anything that is even a little ahead of the HRRR/RAP.

Have had fairly bad luck with the better bands so far but upstream radar looks good so should still be able to manage a few inches.

Last 6 runs of the HRRR. Amounts on the southern end more problematic with temps more marginal, so maybe the northern half or so of the sig ice zone has a better shot at actual warning criteria? We'll see.

Precip supposed to sort of redevelop westward.

While we're mentioning old calls