Solid map given current data. I'd say if somebody could overachieve, an area to watch would be the south burbs into part of northwest IN. It would help if tomorrow night thumps pretty good there prior to rain.
Can't help yourself, huh?
Wouldn't be that concerned about cc and lake effect snow for now. Some of the modeling actually suggests amounts could increase for a while (this has already happened in the past several decades) as the lakes being warmer/ice free for longer helps to counteract warmer airmasses in the means. But you still do need to meet a minimum threshold to trigger les and the pattern hasn't just been a little warmer than avg, it has been very mild in the means for the past couple months.
I'd be shocked if you got to 38.
No offense to RC and the other NWS mets, but never been a big fan of the point and click. I will glance sometimes but I tend to go for the zone forecasts. The point and clicks can throw out some real gems sometimes in multi precip type situations especially when it'll break things down into 2 or 3 hour blocks.
What are your thoughts on this one?
I do think it will likely change to rain in the city and some distance north/west of there. For how long is the question.
Tonight into the first ~half of tomorrow may very well have the coldest temperatures for the LOT region out of this entire storm. Too bad precip amounts will be pretty light in that timeframe.
Trend toward a stronger system, especially on the NAM, is not helping around Chicagoland because it helps to wrap in warmer air. Granted we are talking about the difference between like 1005 mb and 1010 mb, but it could end up mattering.
Hopefully 00z runs don't throw a curveball (or it's a good one if they do) but am currently leaning toward a total of 4-6" around here. I'm not sure why since everything has seemingly underachieved imby and this storm is going to be plagued with temp issues. But to be clear, I don't expect to actually see 6" on the ground and maybe not even 4". Other than the slop aspect, it should be a pretty picturesque snow on the trees.
Was just thinking about how screwed the city would be in a marginal setup like this if it were earlier in the season. Flow is pretty much offshore until Friday but then when it does turn onshore on Friday, it is not that strong and shoreline temp is now down to 33 and the crib is all the way down to 29. Everybody is going to struggle to accumulate at times in this setup with how marginal it is but shouldn't end up with a big inland to lakeside gradient.
There really isn't a compelling reason to believe the GFS thermal profiles. Always have to be skeptical of outliers... maybe a little less so if it's the ECMWF as the outlier but that is not the case this time. What kind of track record does this upgraded GFS have to put a lot of faith in it? Like you said, it doesn't mean the snowier models are going to nail amounts either because we are still dealing with questionable 2m temps. This discrepancy with the temps aloft has been interesting to watch. I have never been more curious to look at actual observed 925 mb temps in the coming days lol