Hoosier

I just use it as a name for a big ridge. I know some people use it for other things like when there's a big low in the Gulf of Alaska.

We already know that though. I'm talking about somebody coming in on the low end or less than forecast/modeled. On the 18z NAM it is more like Milwaukee instead of Chicago on the RAP.

A strong southeast ridge would favor a cutter of some kind, but cutters come in all kinds of strengths. You can get a big neg tilt trough with a very deep surface low or a strung out positively tilted trough with a 1005 mb low. The stronger the southeast ridge, the more height gradient which increases the flow aloft which tends to have a deleterious effect on getting amped up storms. There are probably exceptions but the way he said it makes sense. We have been dealing with a pig ridge down there numerous times this winter and have not seen very many strong/neg tilt systems... coincidence?

Alek trolling aside, something like this is a reasonable concern imo. Somebody is probably going to get screwed with how this pivots, just a matter of where. On the 18z RAP, it has the better band settling south with minimal time spent over Chicago.

This one may at least have a chance to not be a strung out/pos tilt mess as we have seen so often. Typhoon Tip over in the SNE forum makes good points when you can actually understand what he's typing, and one of the things we don't have in this setup is a massively strong southeast ridge which tends to shear/grind up emerging s/w when heights get too high (according to him).

Surface flow is actually gonna turn offshore with that surface low position north of Chicago, especially overnight. If lakeside gets a lot less than farther west, bad def band positioning would probably be the bigger culprit.

00z Euro really blew that storm up. Hopefully 12z has something.

Somebody must be running a heater lakeside. This is like an 8-10 degree rise in the past few days, all while air temps have been in the 30s or colder. SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WATER TEMPERATURES NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 931 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2020 LAKE MICHIGAN WATER TEMPERATURES... CHICAGO SHORE..........41 CHICAGO CRIB..........40

Hard to have high confidence in the details going into tonight. The dry slot seems to have gotten farther north than progged a couple days ago, which has allowed temps to get a bit warmer farther north. This may cause a bit of a delay in flipping to snow or at least getting temps down toward freezing. The warmest models still do seem to be out to lunch for later though.

That was very informative, OHweather. Thanks.

LOT's evening update by Carlaw made note of signs looking better for tomorrow into Sat.

Better get at least 3" tomorrow night. Getting an inch followed by 30+ hours of rain/mostly non accumulating snow and then like 2.5" Fri night/Sat would be a messed up way of getting your first 3" "event"

Mesmerizing (moisture wrapping nwwd probably change to snow faster than indicated)

Rain/snow line basically between I-55 and I-57. If it can collapse down close to CMI-LAF as heavier precip reaches those areas then would feel more confident about getting 3-4 hours of snow here later.

Shore temp actually went up like 4 degrees in the past day or two. Wasn't expecting a jump like that since it hasn't exactly been warm outside. Maybe the south winds upwelled lol

Getting some nice flakeage here now.

Definitely got exposed. Don't recall such a glaring 925 mb issue since the upgrade. Would have to pay more attention on non precip days to see if it runs warm then too.

Next round gathering down south. Have really low expectations here tonight but hopefully will get a period of decent snow falling as much of Friday looks kind of boring. The def band looks pretty good on the sim reflectivity products so late Friday into Saturday would have the potential for some decent rates if thermal profiles cooperate.

Yeah, it ended up way south. I think it was a 00z Euro run about 4 days out that was the first to suggest a suppressed outcome.

Groundhog day, which means it has to be farther west.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/lake-effect-snow-paradox

What has your temp been like? LOT was saying that ratios upstream were running less than 10:1

lol

The GFS is still at it with the 925 mb temp thing. Here are the last few days of runs valid at 00z Friday. Notice the last few runs in severe catchup mode.