Hoosier

Anything can go wrong this far out but as tsnow said in the first post, a more strung out/less phased outcome can still be a decent storm for somebody. On the other end, you see what happens when there's more phasing like the 12z Canadian. Early take... I don't expect a clean snow event around here.

Nope. As I've mentioned before, still waiting on a 3" snow.

I'd agree with that. Better chances should be n/w of the Ohio Valley for a while. Wondering if there will finally be a big enough snow here in February to cover the grass tips for the first time this winter. Think it has to happen at some point as the pattern looks less torchy overall and not devoid of action.

Truth

Absolutely, at least for free sites.

You might be approaching the limit. Go into My Attachments and delete some old ones and see if that helps.

I would dispute the active part a little bit. I guess it depends on how you define the word and where you are. There were those couple unusually early storms in Oct/Nov. Then there were a couple significant storms in different parts of the sub in December, but I wouldn't really call that "active" overall. You expect some storminess... this isn't the desert. Recall that December was quite bad and boring in those areas that missed out on the bigger storms that month (ORD could hardly buy a drop of any kind of precip in the first 4 weeks). January has been better in terms of storm frequency and hopefully we build on it and get some bigger storms.

Would be a pretty epic blizzard especially out in the Plains. Like a 65 mb pressure gradient at one point.

Desperate times. I wonder if my former LAF brother would agree. I'm guessing not.

Poor Boston

Was looking at some tornado data from 2019 and it appears something very unusual happened in Illinois. No (E)F2+ tornadoes. That has only happened a couple times in the official record.

I wish that were true. If I had to guess I'd say Lake county IN gets a les event of 6+ (talking all or mostly les, not 5" of synoptic followed by a couple inches of les) once every few years on average, with the eastern part of the county having a little better chance than west. Probably the standout event since I moved back was 3/14/2017. It had the heaviest snow rates I have ever witnessed... a little over 4"/hr and it was actually the whole hour and not an extrapolated thing of it snowing an inch in 15 minutes. Wish I would've been here for the Jan 2014 event, that was a real big dog les with about 2 feet that fell very quickly.

Or get really cold and warm up just in time for rain, rinse and repeat.

This winter really is pretty awful. I'd give it a D or D- at this point. The thing saving it from an F is the Halloween snow, which was pretty cool. But other than that, it checks all the boxes for failure whether it's a lack of snow overall, lack of any remotely decent storm imby, terrible December (a month I prioritize), etc. It reminds me of some of those 1990s winters growing up. Getting a 4-6" snow was a pretty big deal. Really got spoiled between 1998 and 2007... off the top of my head I can think of 5 double digit storms in that timeframe with 2 of them being near/over a foot and a half. It's been so bad I'd even take the GHD sleet repeat at this point lol

This is one of those where a snow board is more useful than usual. Otherwise you are guessing.

Getting wet flakes here.

To Alek, yeah. As far as the models, I wouldn't say that.

The freezing level does look low enough for snow. It is surprising. Only thing I can figure, and this may not explain it, is that there is a touch of dry air aloft between about -5C and -10C. It's not really even dry, just not saturated. Maybe RC or someone else can chime in.

00z NAM is not good for Chicago proper.

Yeah, getting to be a little much. I'm gonna actually have to moderate if it keeps up.

Nice returns overhead. It's rain of course since this is the winter of 2019-20 in northwest Indiana.

Canadian has butchered the past couple snows around here, being way too bullish on the southern end until correcting within 24 hrs. Funny how our opinions vary depending on where we are.

No sun in sight. A Spartman special.

Yeah this fog is pretty legit.

They are definitely concerned about the pivot point and gradient on the eastern side, as noted in the afd. Obviously north/west areas look best but I'd almost rather be in JOT/IKK than here.