Hoosier

Lake component adds a bit of uncertainty to this, but only going to go with about 1-2" from that for now. Combined with the synoptic portion could result in about 4-6" by the time it's all done.

00z NAM is looking pretty decent for about the southern half of LOT. Not as good as 12z of course. Noticeable lake signature too.

I'd consider 4" a win in this winter. I think it is within reach around here especially with some lake contribution though overall trends aren't inspiring. 21z RAP was ok.

Interesting read. When you first hear it it seems like some fringe/kook theory but maybe not. Hard to draw a link between that and model performance lately though.

NAM and GFS Kuchera ratios look quite a bit lower than the Euro (in a proportional sense when comparing to their 10:1 maps, not in terms of totals) which is interesting. Euro must have significantly colder max temp aloft since that is what the formula is based on.

Yesterday's 12z Euro had the 6+ area in northern IL.

Better than I thought. Euro has like 17:1 ratios around Chi metro.

Gotta admit I didn't put a whole lot of thought into getting "missed" to the south over the past 24 hours. Nice one mother nature. Hoping for some northward recovery in the next day or so even if it doesn't come all the way back.

At least we have the lake to tack on. Near shore temps have actually spiked back up into the low 40s as of this morning lol.

I think it's more the placement than the amounts. The Ukie amounts look relatively similar to most other models but it is farther south. If we had a UKMET Kuchera map, that would probably be about 4-7" in the se 1/2 of LOT and 6-8" in the narrow band running northeast from STL.

Wouldn't go all in on the NAM but it may be telling us something with that band of enhanced totals. The 00z Euro seemed like a good compromise with more like 6-8" in that band.

Not that confident in getting 6" in 12 hours to satisfy warning criteria, so iffy if they will have enough confidence to go with a watch unless amounts trend up. I would remind RC and everyone else at LOT that it has been like Kentucky climo in this part of the cwa so far this winter, so maybe that should be factored in for a borderline case.

It looks like that is the first time that IND surpassed a previous record high by 5+ degrees since 2/20/2018. Thank God I didn't have to go too far back to track that down.

I am desperately trying to find what will derail this imby but have to admit it is looking pretty decent overall. There is a nice buffer before precip type would become a concern. Temps look good... no marginal 33-34 degree stuff during the snow. Duration is pretty good and with some possible lake bonus. The main concern I can come up with would be if some of the better precip rates/bands just don't happen to land right but that is a possibility in pretty much any storm and largely unforecastable. So, here's to a solid advisory+ event.

We can all agree though that nothing is as stupid as the tropical tidbits maps when sleet is involved.

March 2012 tho. Remember that? I think it's supposed to happen like every other year or three now.

Usual caveat about models out around day 10 but that looks to have potential. Nice return flow and the western troughing is in no hurry to move east.

Unofficially you may have the record for longest time between registration and first post. Welcome!

I can't remember outsnowing the nw burbs in a significant snow event (so not something like them getting a dusting and me an inch) in about 2 years. Believe it was in Feb 2018. Pretty remarkable since our snowfall averages are pretty close. I am wondering if this will be the one lol

It is a good thing that the 5th-6th wave looks to come through because not surprisingly, the one after that looks too far east with the possible exception of the eastern sub.

NAM seems like an outlier in how it handles the 5th-6th. I don't dare get excited yet though at the possibility of like 3-5"... not with how this winter has gone.

This is just stupid. Massive differences in handling the trough, which has massive effects at the surface.

Comparing the NAM and ICON at 72 hrs, it is almost hard to believe both are valid at 00z Thursday.

58 here

There are some 70 degree readings in Missouri.