Hoosier

I don't know if you'd agree but I think you guys are a bit too low on amounts south of the city. There is a bit of uncertainty on how quickly temps at the sfc/aloft warm up to change the precip type or result in less efficient snow accumulation, but it won't have to snow for more than a few hours to get some 2 to maybe locally 3 inch amounts even down toward I-80 and a bit south.

That is like two thirds of a grade, unless you guys do things differently in Canada.

Trending toward the more northerly solution that the Euro has been showing.

I might raise my winter grade by a whole letter if this happens

Wall of reflectivity still showing nicely on the 21z RAP

Probably too aggressive with gusts south of I-80 (not sure what kind of formula it uses) but south facing objects should get plastered pretty good.

LOT went advisory for a couple counties bordering WI.

Thinking about 1.5-2" here tomorrow. Don't see a whole lot of potential for major overperformance locally due to the short duration. I would put the ceiling around 3" and that would only be if everything breaks right and it rips extremely hard. Despite the weak surface low, there is a rather impressive llj with this to the tune of 50-70+ kts at 850 mb, which raises a bit of concern about precip changing from snow to something else faster than modeled. But the mod/hvy precip rates should help to hold back the warming at least for a couple hours.

"Ride the euro"

I would take RC's post farther and say that I wouldn't be surprised to see a period of blizzard/near blizzard conditions in the LOT cwa. You need 3 hours of meeting the visibility and gust criteria which may be tough to do at any given location, but nonetheless it should be pretty intense for a while. There is tremendous low level wind in the waa regime, a lot of which should have trouble mixing down but still enough for some 35+ mph gusts I think. Also will be curious to see what happens with the winds if that heavy burst of snow materializes... whether it enhances the gusts or not.

And yet, my prediction is that February will come out at/above average for snow at ORD. It's a problem from a sustained deep winter point of view but it looks cold/active enough to not be a total wipeout.

That is one deep low out east. Usually a surface low that deep is off the coast (makes sense with enhanced baroclinicity between land/ocean) but not this time.

Yeah, ratios should be held in check on the southern end due to marginal temps. Evaporative/dynamic cooling will be up against southerly flow.

Had a quick period of heavy snow earlier as the lake band moved through. There were actually 2-3" per hour rates in that band as a town to my south/east recorded 1.5" in just 25 minutes.

Not expecting a whole lot of accumulation this far south but this kind of setup does look good for a quick mini thump before thermal profiles become hostile.

HRRR is suggesting about 2-3" of LES somewhere around here. I have been thinking on the lower end more like an inch or two so if that pans out, would end up around 5" or a hair above for a total.

I don't care what the numbers are... I shoveled the stuff this morning lol Being serious though, wonder if there was some undercatch by the sensors? Or maybe ratios were just worse farther south/east.

No way we had 18:1 here. There is some blowing but this stuff has some density to it.

Similar here, measured just under 4". Like you, grass completely covered for the first time.

Let's try this again sometime.

Intensity has picked up again. Have gotten pretty lucky with the banding so far.

It was a quick 2 so there's that. Now down to a high end light/borderline moderate snow.

Eyeballing out the window looks like maybe close to 2"

Right in the heart of this heavier band right now (few miles west of home). Flake size is moderate to large and it's just pouring down. Probably among the best rates I have witnessed all season.

Snow has begun.