Hoosier
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Everything posted by Hoosier
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That damn HRRR/RAP have ruined short range precip type forecasting.
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I am wondering who will get the most snow between you, Chicagowx, me, and LAF. A lot of drama building.
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If we had a big neg tilt trough being progged then we could pretty much throw it out with how this season has gone . Maybe just maybe we can see something good out of this setup. Long way to go though.
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Didn't take long to moisten up there. Radar returns don't look that good yet.
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If you just look at 500 mb, you think that is kind of a pathetic look for a big storm. At least I did. So again, may not end up big in the end but it is nice to see the Euro spit out those amounts.
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T/Td spreads are running 12-14 degrees in Chicago metro. Should be a very quick drop to about 33-34 after onset, and then the question is how long it takes to drop to/below freezing.
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One thing about the Euro is that it shows there is a way to get big snow amounts even with a pretty strung out/positively tilted trough.
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Let's do it
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Should run farther north than the current storm. We'll see what happens.
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4-5" still looking like a reasonable bet here. LOT went 4-7" for Lake/Porter but I don't think the lake effect will hang on long enough in my part of the county to get to the higher part of the range. Would probably need the synoptic part to overperform to have a shot at the higher end.
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Unfortunately I think that Euro map is going to bust for Indy. Everything would have to go perfectly... not only getting all snow, but would need temps to cool off to around freezing quickly enough so that not much is wasted. One or both of the factors of precip type and marginal temps look to be a concern for the Indy area. If anybody has a shot at getting around 6", it would probably be up toward LAF/OKK but I am not really convinced of it there either.
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LOT has a low around 0/-1 at ORD on Friday morning. The fate of the universe hangs in the balance.
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That kind of thing happens from time to time. I guess LOT is running backup for them today.
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LOT goes advisory from about I-80 south.
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18z NAM actually came in a little wetter than 12z here, however it has tightened things up on the northern end.
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ketchup
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Tricky call around I-70 corridor. Very likely what is shown on the snow maps doesn't pan out.
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I do have some concern with the main llj focus being well south and possibly limiting precip amounts a bit up into this area. That being said, a blend of the op/ensemble runs would still suggest 4-5" to be attainable around here when factoring in improving ratios over time. The 12z Euro was a disappointing run and while not outright dismissing, would be easier to buy into the worst case scenario if temps were a big concern and duration was short.
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That warm bias has gotten annoying. Happens time after time after time.
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I have not really dug into it to be honest, because it has looked like the flow would back enough to send it east of here before the better thermodynamics are in place.
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Does the magnet still apply when someone no longer lives there? Deep questions
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Probably one of the best spread the wealth systems all season if it pans out.
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Real long duration grinder the farther east you are.
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Don't be trying to get Malacka's hopes up now.
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I have read that over the years but is there really any basis to it lol? The models all use the same RAOBs and stuff so it kind of doesn't make sense.
