Hoosier

One noticeable thing is how subdued the fall season was overall. There were no tornadoes after June in KY, and none after Aug in IN and OH, and these are the states where fall tornado activity is more likely in terms of climo.

Illinois Jan: 1 ; 1 EFU Apr: 2 ; 2 EF0 May: 27 ; 15 EF0, 12 EF1 Jun: 10 ; 1 EFU, 5 EF0, 4 EF1 Jul: 1 ; 1 EFU Aug: 3 ; 2 EF0, 1 EF1 Sep: 4 ; 3 EF0, 1 EF1 Total: 48 ; 3 EFU, 27 EF0, 18 EF1 Indiana Feb: 2 ; 1 EF0, 1 EF1 Mar: 3 ; 2 EF0, 1 EF1 Apr: 2 ; 2 EF1 May: 10 ; 1 EF0, 5 EF1, 2 EF2, 2 EF3 Jun: 12 ; 6 EF0, 3 EF1, 3 EF2 Aug: 2 ; 1 EFU, 1 EF1 Total: 31 ; 1 EFU, 10 EF0, 13 EF1, 5 EF2, 2 EF3 Kentucky Feb: 1 ; 1 EF1 Mar: 6 ; 4 EF0, 1 EF1, 1 EF2 Apr: 1 ; 1 EF1 May: 1 ; 1 EF1 Jun: 16 ; 2 EF0, 14 EF1 Total: 25 ; 6 EF0, 18 EF1, 1 EF2 Michigan Mar: 4 ; 3 EF0, 1 EF2 May: 1 ; 1 EF0 Aug: 1 ; 1 EF0 Sep: 2 ; 2 EF0 Total: 7 EF0, 1 EF2 Ohio Jan: 1 ; 1 EF1 Feb: 1 ; 1 EF0 Mar: 2 ; 2 EF0 Apr: 7 ; 1 EFU, 5 EF0, 1 EF2 May: 25 ; 8 EF0, 11 EF1, 2 EF2, 3 EF3, 1 EF4 Jun: 11 ; 5 EF0, 6 EF1 Aug: 1 ; 1 EF1 Total: 48 ; 1 EFU, 21 EF0, 19 EF1, 3 EF2, 3 EF3, 1 EF4 Wisconsin May: 1 ; 1 EF0 Jun: 1 ; 1 EF0 Jul: 21 ; 14 EF0, 7 EF1 Aug: 1 ; 1 EF0 Sep: 2 ; 1 EF1, 1 EF3 Oct: 2 ; 1 EF0, 1 EF1 Total: 28 ; 18 EF0, 9 EF1, 1 EF3 6 state total by month: Jan: 2 Feb: 4 Mar: 15 Apr: 12 May: 65 Jun: 49 Jul: 22 Aug: 8 Sep: 8 Oct: 2 6 state total by intensity: EFU: 5 EF0: 88 EF1: 77 EF2: 10 EF3: 6 EF4: 1

I would've said that maybe the winter that refused to die played a role, but it didn't seem to hurt the totals much in the other states. And half of those 8 in Michigan actually came in March. Obviously MI climo isn't as favorable as farther south and west (see below) but there have been a number of lean years there, especially in terms of stronger tors.

Accuweather or the forecast?

I have compiled the 2019 tornado data for the 6 states that roughly outline the subforum -- IL, IN, KY, MI, OH, WI. We still love our posters from neighboring states though. Going to post a quick summary and will add more detailed state by state data later tonight or tomorrow when I have a chance. November and December data are not finalized yet but there were no preliminary tornado reports in the 6 state area during those months, and given a lack of severe weather overall in those months, these numbers are likely to be final. It was a big year for Ohio. Illinois and Ohio tied with 48 tornadoes each. Illinois usually leads the way and often by quite a bit due to its western location in the sub and relatively large size. There were 187 tornadoes in the 6 state area, which is somewhat above average whether you use a 10 year or a longer 30 year average. The sum of the state totals adds up to 188, but this is due to 1 tornado that crossed from Kentucky into Ohio. Illinois: 48 Indiana: 31 Kentucky: 25 Michigan: 8 Ohio: 48 Wisconsin: 28

Best of luck with the move.

Actually getting some flakes here.

You know it's not the best winter when it is raining north of the 540 line in February. We aren't even talking a fall or spring month. The reason why is because of too much warmth in the low levels, even though it is pretty cold aloft especially as you get up toward the 700-500 mb layer. That layer is part of the calculation as we are talking about 1000-500 mb thicknesses of course. So it results in rain in this instance despite the 540 line placement and is another reminder about the importance of forecast soundings.

Not exactly the power trio of models but the Canadian, ICON and Navgem are on the colder side.

ORD/MDW both made it below zero.

Final total 4.5"

There have been some trends in the guidance, though relatively subtle from run to run, that would make this more of a snow event for a large chunk of posters here should those same trends continue on upcoming runs. On the other hand, could start to go back the other way.

Besides Chicago not having a subzero low to this point, it may not be surprising to find out that there have been very few days with single digit lows. There have only been 3 such days so far. The record for the fewest number of lows <10 is 3 days, so that record will remain.

Is this bad?

This stuff has stayed frozen on the trees even through the higher winds. Looks like basically nothing blew off, which surprises me.

The advertised enhanced band of snow w/the front is between Green Bay and Sheboygan and is looking pretty nice.

Temp has dipped just below freezing here. Currently under a pencil thin band of somewhat enhanced returns... literally only a few miles wide.

This is some quality caking. Wish it was daylight.

Anyone having some issues with the NWS websites?

Noticed it is still 33 at ORD/MDW. How well is it sticking in the city? Anyone?

Haven't gotten into better banding/big flakes here either. Just small flakes raining down. Snow is sticking better on the paved surfaces now though.

Should end up with a decent gradient in amounts from IND/southern Marion county to areas just north.

Mostly sticking on colder surfaces here, though some paved areas are starting to whiten in patches.

I think you're not wrong that there has not been any real meaningful shift in today's model guidance. I would say the IND forecast shouldn't have been that high to begin with as there were red flags despite what the Euro was showing.