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Hoosier

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Everything posted by Hoosier

  1. Hoosier
    This part makes no sense unless the last part was supposed to be GEFS/EPS. A puzzling discussion for multiple reasons.
  2. Hoosier
    Took a quick look at the lake parameters. Nothing really seems to jump out but the airmass is cold enough for some enhancement and the lake is wide open, so I think totals near the western shore could certainly be at least 1-3" higher than farther inland.
  3. Hoosier
    I didn't say how long lasting the wetter portion would be. Just that ratios improve with time .
  4. Hoosier
    One thing I have noticed over the years is that the tension seems to get ratcheted up with these late season storms. Been on display in this thread. I think it's worse when the winter hasn't been good. Not knowing how many more chances you're going to have this season probably plays a role.
  5. Hoosier
    I would agree with this. It will be wet/heavy/sloppy for a portion but ratios should improve with time.
  6. Hoosier
    You still play over/under with him?
  7. Hoosier
    Still having a hard time really getting into this one. Maybe it's due to being too close to the southern edge on most models.
  8. Hoosier
    Climo does explain the discrepancy to some extent. Chicago has better big storm climo because of the frequent lake enhanced contribution in those instances. A storm that produces a general 8-10" inland may give 14" to Chicago, or when there is a general band of 12-18" then it may be over 20" in Chicago. Just how it is.
  9. Hoosier
    Assuming that differences in qpf amounts aren't driving the differences in snow map output, it may be because of a colder max temp aloft which is the basis of the Kuchera formula. But to confuse things more, there is more than one way of calculating with the Kuchera method.
  10. Hoosier
    00z Euro will be an excellent run south of 12z.
  11. Hoosier
    Don't know what it is but having a hard time getting into the upcoming storm. Maybe things will change if we get unanimous consensus of a foot+ imby.
  12. Hoosier
    Look how cold February 2017 was!
  13. Hoosier
    Given what has happened many times this season, this may be sort of where you'd want it at this distance if you're near the southern end. But each setup is different and there are no guarantees.
  14. Hoosier
    Fond memories
  15. Hoosier
    I think it will snow here but absolutely no confidence in anything else. Hopefully it won't take too long to get some clarity but won't be surprised if it does.
  16. Hoosier
    Well, it's going to have to have some length to have a shot at 12+. Very hard to pull that off in a short duration storm unless the dynamics are just nuts.
  17. Hoosier
    Remember yesterday 12z when it basically had nothing.
  18. Hoosier
    Duration looks fairly long for some areas, at least as currently modeled. Would help in getting some bigger totals.
  19. Hoosier
    00z Euro isn't all the way in yet but this run looks dramatically better than 12z.
  20. Hoosier
    Still have a rapid deepener on the 00z GFS. Absolutely nothing can go wrong at this distance.
  21. Hoosier
    Best thread title
  22. Hoosier
    Euro Shmuro. Big flip flop from 00z. Setup is a bit unclear but it should snow somewhere one way or another.
  23. Hoosier
    So who's got the thread for next week?
  24. Hoosier
    With how big of an area we cover, it's tough to get one in all the states. I can think of some since then that have affected 4 or 5 states but not sure about all of them.
  25. Hoosier
    NW IL has been a dead zone for sure in more recent decades. Hasn't always been that way though... that area had quite a bit of strong/violent activity in the more distant past.
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