Hoosier

RGEM has a nice local lollipop. Unfortunately some of this precip is going to be wasted on marginal temps during the daytime Tuesday.

Guess the outbreak Time's up. March 28, 1920. That means it will be 100 years. The numbers on the map represent order of occurrence. This is like a toned down version of the April 1965 outbreak. Geographic area affected is remarkably similar. 7 of these tornadoes in IL/IN/MI/OH were rated F4.

Our usual thread for small/non thread worthy severe and also for longer range severe discussion. Nothing imminent but there are some signs in the long range that the large scale pattern may become more favorable toward mid March. Could end up not leading to anything but remember I am the guy who started the winter thread a couple weeks before the halloween storm. In the meantime, since nothing is going on, feel free to post thoughts on the upcoming season or talk about past events, etc.

Banding potential still looks decent with this imo, so I think that is going to help bail out some areas and the mesoscale models may have a better handle in that regard.

Post it

For the severe geeks, if the trend of strung out/pos tilted systems continues in spring, it may not be the worst thing in the world. Those types of systems tend to have less forcing, which could mean less squall line messes and better tornado potential. Have to avoid perpetual eastern troughing though.

18z GFS is south again, to nobody's surprise.

The amounts in the main band look ok. The placement obviously looks problematic. This storm had trended so bad that even the Dow Jones hates it.

Just blame everything on 5G.

There are 2 types of storm fails. 1) when the storm simply shifts out of someone's backyard and 2) when the storm totally falls apart and screws everyone. At least we are not all the way at #2 yet but would be nice to see beefier trends.

Toss worthy again due to the warm 2m bias. Too warm during the day tomorrow means it will be too slow to cool temps to near/below freezing.

The Feb 2016 snow was a synoptic storm. The way the gradient laid out just made it look like a lake effect event. I remember there was uncertainty about amounts in Chicago before that one but you knew the sharp gradient was going to set up somewhere around the city a few days in advance. In this upcoming storm, it looked like the northwest edge would be nowhere near the city up until the recent runs.

And almost to the day of 2/24/16. That was reminiscent of a lake effect type gradient in amounts between the city and nw IN, only it was a synoptic storm.

This has been a pretty substantial shift for this day in age, but I remember more frequent big busts in the 90s. One in particular (wish I could remember the exact year... could've been 1995 or 1996) when I was forecast for 7-13" (odd range I know) the day before and ended up not getting a flake or any precip for that matter. It pulled a last minute south lunge.

UK is an easy toss, at least verbatim speaking. The weight/blend of everything usually wins this close in to an event.

LOT fired out an update a little while ago but did not expand the watch any more than the overnight package. With the GFS now on board for a farther south solution, the expansion has to come with the afternoon package.

A little nervous to make a call with all of the shifting, but not a lot of time left for large shifts. Getting missed north looks off the table. I'd go 7-9" here... yes, deliberately capping it just short of double digits although I do think the heaviest band has a good chance of producing 10+ wherever it sets up.

Seems pretty clear that watches will have to be expanded southeast. Question is how far. As far as LOT is concerned, I think at least a couple tiers southeast of where it currently is. Doubt they will expand it all the way through the cwa at this point given how large of a change that would be but there is enough model support to extend it at least through my area imo, unless the GFS is holding them hostage.

Playing right into the amped up bias at that range.

The back and forth about slp changes hiding the fact that it's still going to be a pound town run.

I think it will still be plenty good on this run for Chicago. We shall see soon.

To add to this, I believe that is the case for 500 mb heights. Not sure how it compares in other aspects.

This is the first time all winter that I have felt it's more than just a hail mary pass to get 6+ imby. There have only been 1 or 2 other times where it was even a remote possibility if everything went right, but I would almost give it 50/50 odds at this point. Temps are marginal of course, especially through most of Tuesday. Duration looks fairly long though with periods of moderate/heavy rates possible and a period of lake enhancement. So overall I am optimistic for at least a moderate hit in the worst case scenario, with potential to get toward major category.

Here's a tip... Euro runs on a 6 hour schedule like other models. The timing is just pushed back. So since the 12z run starts coming out a little before 12 pm central time, it means the 18z run starts just before 6 pm central.

I think we'll see 12:1 or possibly a bit better at the end, not for a total event average though.