Hoosier

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2020 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY/MID-SOUTH VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the lower Ohio Valley and Mid South into parts of the southeastern Plains Thursday afternoon and evening. ...ArkLaTex Vicinity to the Ohio/Tennessee Valley Region... A shortwave impulse embedded in larger-scale upper trough over the central U.S. will deepen and eject eastward from the central Plains to the Great Lakes on Thursday. The main surface low associated with this system will track eastward across Ontario with a surface cold front extending south/southwest from the Upper Midwest to western portions of the southern Plains during the morning. A warm front will extend eastward from a weak surface low over northern OK into northern AR/western TN early Thursday, lifting northward toward the Ohio River during the day. Strong warm advection ahead of the east/southeastward progressing cold front will allow low-to-mid 60s F dewpoints to overspread the south-central U.S. from eastern OK/TX into parts of KY/TN. Surface heating likely will be limited by cloud cover and areas of ongoing showers, and strong warm advection between 850-700 mb will result in pockets of stronger capping. However, a 40-50 kt southwesterly low level jet will develop by late afternoon/early evening and pockets of MLCAPE up to 1000 J/kg are forecast along/just ahead of the cold front/triple point near the MO/AR border southwestward into southeast OK, as well as eastward near the warm front across KY/TN. Semi-discrete cells in the warm sector are possible initially, but clusters are expected to grow upscale into during the evening as vertical shear become aligned with the frontal boundary. All severe hazards appear possible, with hail more likely earlier in storm evolution where midlevel lapse rates are expected to range from 7-7.5 C/km across western portions of the Slight risk area. SRH values greater than 250 m2/s2, and enlarged low level hodographs will support tornado potential in both discrete cells and within any bowing line segments. Furthermore, intense low level wind field will support damaging winds through the evening hours as convection spreads eastward into the OH/TN Valley vicinity. ...Central/Southern Appalachians Vicinity... Several forecast models indicate isolated storms may develop across parts of northern GA into Upstate SC/western NC. Dewpoints in the lower 60s will increase across the region, and backed southeasterly surface winds are forecast as a surface trough develops near higher terrain. There is indication that subtle impulses will eject across the region ahead of the main upper trough, leading to weak upper forcing and low level convergence along the surface trough. Stronger heating is likely this far east, and MLCAPE could climb to near 1000 J/kg with marginal low-to-mid level lapse rates forecast withing an adequately sheared environment. While conditional, any cells that develop could pose a risk for marginal hail/gusty winds. ...Lower Colorado Valley Vicinity... An upper low off the coast of southern CA will pivot eastward toward the Lower CO Valley on Thursday. Surface dewpoints near 60F will spread northward along the CA/AZ border beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. Low level shear will be weak, but effective shear will support some organized cells with strong flow expected in mid and upper levels. Instability will be limited, but a couple of strong cells are possible. If trends continue, probability may become warranted in later outlooks, mainly for a marginal hail risk. ..Leitman.. 03/11/2020

Of course there will be snow.

Nice

Yeah, big time. Unfortunately for them most of the snow is offshore.

IIRC, I think he has said that he has bad allergies.

Caught something nasty. Fever, chills, cough, etc. Really came on like gangbusters on Monday with no real let up yet. Officially diagnosed with an upper respiratory infection... I'd almost rather take my chances with coronavirus.

I guess it depends how you grade. I think the elite forecasters do hit the general character of the winter more often than not. If somebody goes warmer than average, say +1 to +3 for DJF and it ends up +4, I count that as a success because of the long lead time involved.

You had a lot of sun, right? This is sort of anecdotal but I feel like most models tend to underdo temps more often on certain days in spring (especially early) compared to other times of year. I don't know if the lack of vegetation at this time of year has something to with it or if it is due to phantom snowcover in the models or some other reason. Conversely, the HRRR was overdoing temps by quite a bit on storm days this winter, but those days would tend to have more clouds. So maybe it is that the HRRR will do well with temps on days that are mostly sunny.

In case no one noticed, met winter was a little warm.

There are some people who I would say are better than a coin flip, but I haven't seen anybody nail it year after year. The good ones are more like 70% success rate.

Even more bizarre is that the only measurable snow for Paducah and Evansville so far in 2019-20 came outside of meteorological winter in November. That November snow (1.2" for Paducah and 1.1" for Evansville) will prevent it from being the least snowy first to last flake season. Paducah has actually had a few years when only a trace fell in the entire snow season.

This would be nice. Although we'd be better off with these types of anomalies in April when averages are higher.

My question is whether we will continue to see it run too warm. I haven't been paying enough attention to it during non-storm times.

I am so ready for spring. The desire has really come on strong in the past few days.

Yeah, coming down good and sticking to paved surfaces. May indeed end up close to 2" by 00z at this rate.

Colder surfaces whitening up.

12z Euro is decent here at face value, but the problem is that it has a couple inches down by 00z which looks unlikely. So would have to rally more than expected after that time to make up.

Which winter would get a higher grade from you? One with 25" but relatively consistent cold and little thaws, or more of an up and down one with 60" but frequent thaws. Let's assume the max individual storm in each winter is the same.

Decent flake size under this little band.

It is actually kind of impressive that the final total should even end up within shouting distance of average given how mild of a winter it has been and the lack of any big individual snow. No doubt helped out by the early snows as pointed out.

The long term average for 10"+ storms in Chicago is closer to one every three years, so yeah, running behind.

Temps are generally 33-34 where the better snow is right now. Honestly I am expecting very little to stick through the afternoon hours and will be pleasantly surprised otherwise.

I probably won't be able to give it an F no matter what happens from here on out. Don't get me wrong though, it's been bad. Generally I am reluctant to give out the top or bottom grade.

We went through a period when you could almost take the northwest trend to the bank. Now it's like a complete 180.

Well with any luck, maybe the bleeding has stopped locally. I mean, onset is just hours away now. Does look like my call is going to be a few inches too high. I think 4-6" is a reasonable range. 6" being if some better banding/lehs comes through.