Hoosier

This is what I was using. He has surface maps from afternoon hours http://bangladeshtornadoes.org/UScases.html

I took a cursory look at some past significant severe events in the region from mid March-Mid April, and having mid-upper 60s dews as far north as is being progged tomorrow is elite level territory. There is more to a severe weather setup than dewpoints of course, but that aspect is very impressive for the time of year.

We do have upper 60s dewpoints farther south right now, so it shouldn't be hard to get mid-upper 60s dews farther north in IL tomorrow.

Yeah, I will eat my hat without anything to drink if we get 70 degree dews in central IL. Mid-upper 60s dews definitely look doable though, considering current dews to the south.

00z HRRR doesn't look like it's going to be in the excessively slow camp.

Looks like we are going to have 300+ deaths in the US today. That is probably comparable to a day in flu season but the problem is the trend. Some recent modeling projected 2000+ US deaths per day at the peak (April). Hopefully it's not that bad.

What Iceland did is interesting. They tested random people in their population and there was a pretty significant percentage who tested positive for the virus but were asymptomatic. Of course some of those may eventually go on to develop symptoms but it is more data to suggest a substantial asymptomatic component to this thing.

Chicago has a lot of international travel too. And just the sheer number of people living in the Chicago metro area...

Truck driver from New York who knew he had the virus drove to northwest IN anyway. Idiot.

Michigan numbers aren't good. 32 more deaths since yesterday. It is sort of surprising. I would've had it hitting Illinois hardest first because of Chicago.

They do serve as a good example of why you don't want to overwhelm the hospital system. Some people who would otherwise survive end up dying when they can't get adequate care. Questions about testing aside, their death rate has trended higher over time. When Italy had about 1500 deaths (close to what the US has now), their death rate was about 6.7%. Now it has surpassed 10%.

Italy... good God. Almost 1000 more deaths. They just have a perfect combo of factors there to make this really bad.

Surface low position and nuances with the occlusion also matters. Eventually as the surface low approaches, the warm front will be forced north up to a certain point. Well maybe I shouldn't say certain because we're not sure exactly where, lol

Large increase in number of confirmed cases in Indiana compared to yesterday... like a 50% jump. Unfortunately 7 more deaths to bring the numbers to 981 confirmed cases and 24 deaths.

It is a pretty good setup, but 11/17/13 had a larger area of better tornado potential than this does. I am not sure I agree with the comparison even if we limit it to Illinois, but you can make a better case with that vs a larger regional comparison.

Pretty robust outlook. Even mentioned giant hail.

Thanks for the heads up. I've been on frequent refresh for the last 10 mins or so.

Even though this is not the norm by any means, stories like this really get your attention. https://nypost.com/2020/03/27/family-says-perfectly-healthy-dad-is-dead-days-after-coronavirus-diagnosis

Warm weather shouldn't hurt. The question is how much it will help. What is going on in New Orleans, for example, is concerning. It has been in the 70s/80s there for practically the entire month and they are becoming a hotspot of cases. There is a thought that Mardi Gras sort of started it all which seems reasonable.

You know that severe weather threat this weekend? It will be a foot of snow instead.

Yeah. Some countries overseas seem to have moved quickly to a national lockdown, even if it started off more local. The US isn't anything like that right now. Schools have closed in the vast majority of states and many states have stopped restaurant dine-in, but I think only about 20 states have the "stay at home" order right now. Which as we know, is not quite what it suggests and is not always followed. Because of the non uniform nature, unless that changes, my guess is that it will take us longer to get over the hump to the other side of the curve.

Y'all have better memories than me. Were they Plains or Dixie setups? I couldn't remember one that was focused more in our region.

I don't remember ever seeing an afternoon update on a day 3 outlook.