Hoosier

So even worse than thought. But it is a good piece of info to have so as to not be alarmed when looking at the trends going forward.

Oof. Over 1100 new confirmed cases in IL since yesterday.

State of Indiana has started releasing the age breakdown of cases. Updated daily. Based on what I've read, the testing has been biased away from younger people/mild symptoms and more toward those with worse symptoms, especially with pre-existing conditions. So with that in mind, it is noteworthy to see this distribution. I think the word is slowly getting around that this isn't just an older person's disease and that younger people can get into real trouble too, even though fatality rates are much lower in people under 50 or 60.

Much quicker testing is supposedly on the way (results in minutes), but availability of those will be a question. Forgot to mention in my last post that there is a possible outbreak in the county jail here... but guess what, they haven't been able to get the tests yet.

Same here. My county also has the 2nd highest number of verified cases in Indiana now, not surprising since it is the 2nd most populated but it did start off slow. I wonder how much is under the surface here because Marion county (home of Indianapolis) has 2x the population but over 8x the number of confirmed cases.

Gonna be near/over 500 US deaths today. Really should be putting to rest any questions about whether restrictive measures were necessary.

Numbers are underdone of course but now have almost 20 states reporting >1000 cases. I am guessing the actual number is 40 something.

One of the Illinois deaths is an infant.

File this under "hope I don't regret this" Late Friday afternoon, the city of Hammond announced that its first employee had tested positive for COVID-19. A Hammond police officer has tested positive for the virus, Mayor Tom McDermott Jr. said, while two others who were in close contact with that officer were sent home. The two other individuals won’t be ordered into quarantine, he said, because the city can’t afford to lose first responders at a time like this. "Just because you've been exposed but are not showing symptoms, I can't have them quarantined for two weeks," McDermott said. https://www.chicagotribune.com/suburbs/post-tribune/ct-ptb-indiana-coronavirus-update-0329-20200328-ke5pcj7qlfgqpemdxnagr6yehe-story.html

Looks like we are going to have 300+ deaths in the US today. That is probably comparable to a day in flu season but the problem is the trend. Some recent modeling projected 2000+ US deaths per day at the peak (April). Hopefully it's not that bad.

What Iceland did is interesting. They tested random people in their population and there was a pretty significant percentage who tested positive for the virus but were asymptomatic. Of course some of those may eventually go on to develop symptoms but it is more data to suggest a substantial asymptomatic component to this thing.

Chicago has a lot of international travel too. And just the sheer number of people living in the Chicago metro area...

Truck driver from New York who knew he had the virus drove to northwest IN anyway. Idiot.

Michigan numbers aren't good. 32 more deaths since yesterday. It is sort of surprising. I would've had it hitting Illinois hardest first because of Chicago.

They do serve as a good example of why you don't want to overwhelm the hospital system. Some people who would otherwise survive end up dying when they can't get adequate care. Questions about testing aside, their death rate has trended higher over time. When Italy had about 1500 deaths (close to what the US has now), their death rate was about 6.7%. Now it has surpassed 10%.

Italy... good God. Almost 1000 more deaths. They just have a perfect combo of factors there to make this really bad.

Large increase in number of confirmed cases in Indiana compared to yesterday... like a 50% jump. Unfortunately 7 more deaths to bring the numbers to 981 confirmed cases and 24 deaths.

Even though this is not the norm by any means, stories like this really get your attention. https://nypost.com/2020/03/27/family-says-perfectly-healthy-dad-is-dead-days-after-coronavirus-diagnosis

Warm weather shouldn't hurt. The question is how much it will help. What is going on in New Orleans, for example, is concerning. It has been in the 70s/80s there for practically the entire month and they are becoming a hotspot of cases. There is a thought that Mardi Gras sort of started it all which seems reasonable.

Yeah. Some countries overseas seem to have moved quickly to a national lockdown, even if it started off more local. The US isn't anything like that right now. Schools have closed in the vast majority of states and many states have stopped restaurant dine-in, but I think only about 20 states have the "stay at home" order right now. Which as we know, is not quite what it suggests and is not always followed. Because of the non uniform nature, unless that changes, my guess is that it will take us longer to get over the hump to the other side of the curve.

Y'all have better memories than me. Were they Plains or Dixie setups? I couldn't remember one that was focused more in our region.

I don't remember ever seeing an afternoon update on a day 3 outlook.

Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot closes city’s Lakefront Trail, adjoining parks, beaches, The 606 trail and the Riverwalk; bans contact sports being played in the city https://www.chicagotribune.com/coronavirus/ct-coronavirus-chicago-lakefront-parks-closed-20200326-zdqpr2p3vfhqdoucu4hqcrtepa-story.html