Hoosier

For sure. The Cook county deaths jumped out at me. 2/3 of the total deaths in Illinois have been there so the percentage from today's update (35/42) is even higher. Little ways out into the future but I am a bit concerned about what happens if Lake county IN were to open back up before Illinois does. May have people spilling over the border to go to the beaches, etc.

35 of the 42 new deaths in Illinois are in Cook county. Yikes

And 78 more deaths

Article comparing what states in the region have done, and also some thoughts about why Michigan is getting hit so hard: https://www.bridgemi.com/michigan-health-watch/why-did-coronavirus-spread-so-fast-michigan-compared-neighbors

Another thing is that people who live together pass it on to each other, accounting for some percentage of new cases.

fwiw, this woman passed away earlier today. So she lasted about 3 weeks after becoming symptomatic. She was really ravaged by it... I mean it goes without saying but her husband was posting frequent updates and according to him they weren't even able to detect any brain activity toward the end.

We can argue about whether the fatality rate is 0.4%, 0.6%, 1% or whatever, and it is useful to find out, but on the ground conditions in the hospitals are what really matter. You see what has happened in some countries overseas and what we are seeing now around NYC and it speaks for itself.

I want warm.

This ain't a movie man.

A town around here already cancelled their July 4 parade and fireworks.

Pretty big earthquake just hit Idaho.

Good point Btw, you know this thing is all over the state when Warren county has cases. That is like the ruralest of the rural counties.

Noticed something odd on the map of Indiana cases. It largely follows based on population with rural counties having no or a few confirmed cases. But I'm not sure why those counties in southeastern IN have the numbers that they do. They are relatively low population/density.

I don't want to predict a death toll... this isn't a snowstorm we are talking about. But I will say this. Looking at the modeling and then doing some numbers on a county level, I think it will be somewhat of a victory if we keep the death toll under 1,000 in Indiana and under 100 in Lake county Indiana. fwiw, current statewide number of deaths is 49.

Today is gonna be bad. Already around 400 deaths with a number of states yet to report anything.

Cases in my county jumped by 50% since yesterday. I don't know if a backlog over the weekend could partially explain that so will be very interested to see tomorrow's number.

This model was put out by a group at University of Washington. It assumes social distancing continuing throughout May. Since we may not actually do that, the real curve may end up looking a bit different on the back side. The low end scenario has around 40,000 US deaths by early August. You can see the high end is over 140,000. Again this is with social distancing continuing throughout the period and obviously assuming no effective therapeutic comes along in the meantime. If we went completely back to life as normal then the numbers would be way uglier than this. In the nearer term, the low end scenario still has 1,000+ deaths per day in the US from April 5-19.

This overlapping with allergy season is going to cause some paranoia for sure.

Cases showing up now in employees at the steel mills around here. They are considered essential business though so they remain open.

Found toilet paper at CVS. It's the little things in life.

There have been some questionable posts, at best. Here's a concept. Don't give me a reason to think you (not you Bo) may be a bigot.

You know, I am starting to wonder some things.

You sort of have to look below the surface, but I think we may be seeing the early signs of the social distancing measures and closings having some effect in the US. Maybe not everywhere in the country but the growth of new cases is more linear now in a number of places. Do have to keep in mind that testing is still trying to catch up and we are going to go through a really rough period for a while so definitely no time to be spiking the football. IN is releasing deaths by age group now. This breakdown is similar to what we have seen elsewhere. And have a disproportionately high percentage of men dying, also seen elsewhere.

Actually had some 50-60 mph gusts in the area today.

Agree with that. I do think it would be useful to know if certain genetic traits or ethnicities make one more susceptible, and from what I understand there is ongoing research into that. I am mostly Polish and Norwegian. I checked their current case load/deaths and nothing really stands out.