Hoosier

An estimated additional 180 - 195 deaths per day occurring at home in New York City due to COVID-19 are not being counted in the official figures. "Early on in this crisis we were able to swab people who died at home, and thus got a coronavirus reading. But those days are long gone. We simply don't have the testing capacity for the large numbers dying at home. Now only those few who had a test confirmation *before* dying are marked as victims of coronavirus on their death certificate. This almost certainly means we are undercounting the total number of victims of this pandemic," said Mark Levine, Chair of New York City Council health committee [source] [source]

51 S.Korean COVID-19 patients retest positive after recovery http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-04/06/c_138951383.htm

British PM now in ICU per news reports.

Candidate for weeniest run of the year.

Week or two is a good guess for when the absolute worst should be on the whole for the nation. There will likely be areas regionally/locally that lag behind that timeframe. How we behave as we flatten the curve in various areas will be very important. Already reports of crowds gathering in Manhattan per a member who is a NYC cop.

Well, the IHME model updated. There is good news and bad news. The good news is that it dropped the total US deaths to a bit over 80k (was like 93k on previous update). The bad news is that the peak day is really ugly. But more *potentially* good news... notice that enormous range on peak day. Maybe things break favorably.

Good job, sir. You'd probably know better than me but I think Holcomb's order carved out an exemption for places of worship, provided they adhere to the recommended crowd/social distance guidelines. Of course that would be difficult for most places to accomplish unless the congregation is very, very small.

Church around here held service today and got busted https://www.nwitimes.com/news/local/crime-and-courts/police-ticket-church-leaders-after-they-refuse-to-disperse-sunday-service-of-more-than-30/article_9d26619f-955b-5a69-b87b-f47d01effb38.html#tracking-source=home-trending I imagine there will be more of this next weekend. Would not be surprised to see a bit of a spike in cases later this month, tied back to gatherings on the religious holidays.

British pm has been sick with the virus for a week and a half and now admitted to the hospital for "tests." What are they testing for at this point? https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN21N0VI

Having an April 14 snowstorm in consecutive years in the sub would be pretty crazy.

I know Indiana is waiting for a positive covid test before listing that as cause of death. I have seen a weird argument being floated around that if somebody has covid-19 along with underlying conditions, then covid-19 wasn't really the thing that killed them and the death shouldn't be classified as such. Once somebody tests positive, I have no problem with that being listed as cause of death (unless they were hit by a car or something), even if they have a bunch of underlying conditions that played a role. You can live for years or even decades with some underlying conditions with covid-19 being the thing to push you over the edge.

One thing I am wondering about the beds in NY. Are they turning some people away who would normally be hospitalized during a time of lower demand... or maybe some people who would normally go to the hospital are trying to ride it out at home for as long as they can? Wouldn't entirely explain that large of a gap in projected/actual but could be a factor. Something doesn't make sense because they are still having hundreds of deaths per day in NY, generally in line with the model projection. How could the bed numbers be so far off but the deaths not?

Can y'all start sourcing your charts and twitter posts please?

There are covid cases on that Navy hospital ship... the one that was meant to be covid free.

IHME was supposed to update the model yesterday but it still hasn't for some reason. Haven't been paying much attention to the bed projections. Unfortunately that model has been performing well with the number of deaths nationwide, so far.

"Only" 525 new deaths in Italy. Lowest number in a while.

About 1 week from now the headline will be that the United States death toll has surpassed that of Italy. It won't be a particularly useful comparison because of the population differences, but still.

We are our worst enemy in a situation like this pandemic... having 50 states that can each do what they want when they want. I really hope there is a well thought out strategy for when the time comes to start to ease up on restrictions, but am concerned there may not be due to what I said above. Gonna have to start out very slowly. Even when things do start to open back up, there will probably be a sizeable part of the population that will be hesitant to go out much. I can't imagine how long it will be until stadiums will be full of fans again. Or normal visitation resuming at places like nursing homes.

Murder-suicide apparently due to fears of covid-19. They ended up testing negative. https://www.chicagotribune.com/suburbs/daily-southtown/ct-sta-coronavirus-murder-suicide-tl-0405-20200404-qfssrokh6ffptan7jon7izb6oi-story.html?

Went on a quick errand and while traffic was down quite a bit compared to a typical Saturday evening, there were probably still more cars than there should've been.

I have seen enough Lightfoot memes in the past few days to last a lifetime.

You should read this on the concept of herd immunity: https://www.sciencealert.com/why-herd-immunity-will-not-save-us-from-the-covid-19-pandemic

At the Indiana news conference today, it was mentioned that the number of verified covid-19 deaths statewide has matched the number of verified flu deaths for this season.

No, because this spreads easier and is more deadly (can argue by what magnitude) than the flu. The US death toll is on pace to surpass the H1N1 death toll in like 1 week or less from now. In much less time.

Would be interesting to see a county by county breakdown of essential businesses and how many people are still required to physically show up to work. My uncle works at a large, well known one here in northwest IN and they have a few cases there now. Went from 1 case to 3 cases.