Hoosier

Yeah, barring a curveball, this should be a pretty good run either side of I-80 and northward into Chicago.

Looking good for about 1-1.5" overnight/tomorrow morning.

My construction buddy hooked me up with an N95. Only one, but better than nothing.

Some of this is probably a lag in reporting from the weekend but over 2300 new US deaths. Averaging the 12th-14th comes out to about 1800/day.

Was looking back at the storm from the middle of last April More of a sw-ne oriented band than this will be

Not entirely out of the question that there could be some lake enhanced precip around northeast IL/northwest IN. Delta T and inversion heights look sufficient enough to get that going. The trade-off is that lake temps are well into the 40s now and onshore flow should result in slightly warmer temps near the lake, so because of that and the overall marginal setup, it probably won't actually add anything to the totals.

The 1980 snow was actually a couple days earlier in the calendar.

Largely missing out on the heavier stuff again.

I'd have to dig into this more to be sure but I suspect this has a shot to be the biggest snow this late in the season in 40 years or more where the main band occurs. There was a pretty big snow in mid April 1980 that mostly stayed west of IN/OH. So for some of those areas you may have to go back to the 1950s or 1960s.

This is true of course, but I think the dropoff maybe has not been as precipitous as hoped. Italy is running above the top end of the IHME projection. At some point this becomes a question of what level of death are various countries willing to tolerate.

I was wondering if 4/10/1997 would show up as one of the analogs at some point. Sure enough, it is on CIPS.

Subtract some since this is 10:1. So would probably be about a 2-4", maybe 5" hit in the main band.

Getting a little too political here. Yes, I know it is the elephant in the room and hard to divorce it from this situation, but overall we have been doing a pretty good job keeping things focused on what the virus is doing. So on that note, some good news and bad news from a country that has gotten a lot of attention -- Italy. New case numbers are trending down but unfortunately the deaths are staying over 500 per day.

My sincere condolences to you

Indiana governor suggested that he may be making tweaks to the stay at home order by the end of this week (order is set to expire April 20). Perhaps some kind of adjustment (loosening?) to the restrictions but we'll see. He did say he has been in contact with the governors in Illinois and Michigan on how to move forward but idk if that necessarily means that all the states will do things at the same time.

Did a partial look at data and found that Springfield finished with more snow than Chicago about 20% of the time. I only looked at 20 years of snow data for the 2 cities though so unsure if that percentage would be similar all the way through the entire period of record.

Nursing home outbreak in northwest IN: NEWTON COUNTY, Ind. (WLFI) — The Newton County Health Department says 21 people in a long-term care facility have been infected with COVID-19. https://www.wlfi.com/templates/AMP?contentID=569596371

Lightfoot taking a pic with the woman who cut her hair was definitely a mistake on her part. I don't know what the circumstances were (did the person come to Lightfoot's house, did Lightfoot go there, etc) but it just gives people ammo. Next time maybe get your hair cut in secret Lori.

Would be some work to find out but I wonder how often central IL outsnows northern IL after April 15.

A couple of systems look to move through the region. A minor one on the 15th with potential for a more significant one on the 16th-17th. The system on the 16th-17th looks like it could have the potential for a band of at least a few inches, if not more. One thing to keep in mind is that the lead-up will be unusually chilly for this time of year, so while accumulation efficiency won't be perfect, it could be a little better than you'd think. The timing also looks pretty favorable with eastward extent in IL/IN/OH/possibly MI, with more of a Thursday evening-Friday morning occurrence.

A lot of cars down the street from here, presumably an Easter gathering. Sure hope nobody is carrying the virus.

Italy's lockdown was extended to May 3, and the US is generally running behind them in terms of the progression of the virus. Obviously it's a different situation in this country with the governors having the say. I think May (at least a good part of it) is probably going to look a lot like April as far as what is going to be open/closed, especially in the harder hit states.

12z GFS is pretty impressive for that system next week, especially for this time of year.