Hoosier

I did notice there seems to be better returns than progged out in northern Nebraska, but nothing really stood out as far as the main band running farther north. Where would you put the northern edge of the 6" area in the LOT cwa?

Gonna be a sloppy work day for you.

Nice returns in northeast KS, which will feed the snow area more with time. Would rather be about 30 miles south of where I am. I guess I could use some of the Chicago Storm optimism.

For local purposes, one of the negatives that has crept in is slower timing. This extends a bit more precip into the late Fri morning timeframe when the sun angle will be a factor as precip rates decrease from what they will be earlier on.

The NAM has some pretty insane frontogenesis and omega overall in Iowa before weakening with eastward extent. Hopefully that can hang on longer so we get a long band of 10+. Might as well go all out to close out the winter.

They should have protested less than 10 at a time.

See my post. It may not be right, but that is impressive to see it on the Kuchera.

And that is on the Kuchera map. Holy sheet.

Was looking at late season snow stats for Fort Wayne. They have only had 2 calendar day snowfalls greater than 2" after April 15... 4.7" on 4/21/1924 and 3.5" on 4/16/1961. Is this #3?

The Euro is still a bit warmer than other models. Most other models have temps AOB freezing into most of northern IL/far northern IN away from Lake Michigan at 12z Friday. Having a hard time buying the Euro temps 2m verbatim, especially where precip rates are heavier. Perhaps the other models are slightly too cold though. Even taking 1-2 degrees off the Euro temps would make a difference.

Liking the possibility of at least 4" around here. Could be more but will depend where the heavier corridor sets up. I actually can't recall witnessing a 4" snowfall in April in my life (was too far east to get in on the better snow with the 4/14/2019 storm), but certainly not after April 15.

April 17th daily snowfall record for Chicago is a very low hanging fruit of 0.5"

LOT afternoon discussion is out. No watch because they don't have enough confidence in where to place it, but they mention a bunch of ingredients favorable for heavy snow with double digit amounts not out of the question.

Des Moines is going up to 9" but mentions locally higher.

ILX did too.

18z NAM tweaked south.

A little walk down memory lane... the storm data entry from April 10-11, 1997. I remember watching this band to my south only slowly move north. An early spring snow storm dumped between 4 and 13.5 inches of heavy wet snow over northern portions of Central Illinois. A 30 mile wide band centered along a line from just south of Galesburg to just north of Peoria received from 10 to 13.5 inches of snow. Numerous trees, tree branches, and powerlines collapsed due to the weight of the heavy wet snow. Some caused damage to vehicles and homes. In Normal (McLean County), the fieldhouse at Illinois State University had a 12 foot high by 150 foot section of the northwest wall collapse under the weight of the 4 inch snowfall, causing $500,000 in damage. Also, numerous accidents occurred throughout the area with a few minor injuries reported.

12z Euro... remember this is 10:1

Looks like a decent sized protest in Michigan. Streets are clogged. Hopefully the people out there will be understanding whenever the next protest occurs for a cause they may not agree with.

In my backyard, of course. Seems like the overall consensus is I-80 or south of there, but we'll see if it trickles north. Power outages look like a possibility as well. Good thing leaf out is not farther along (maybe hasn't even happened yet in some areas).

1.7" at ORD, which breaks the daily record of 1.5" from 1980.

We have seen what banding can do, and I am inclined to lean a bit in the direction of the heavier models. I don't know if I would go 15" in Iowa like the NAM, but certainly think a narrow stripe of double digits is well within the realm of possibility out there. Farther east, I'd go more like 6-8" in the heavy band, perhaps locally higher.

Thanks for your thoughts RC. A couple things. Did you check into the circumstances prior to the 4/14/2019 snow? It actually looks like the lead up to this is colder. The rates with that were very good, heavy enough that the roads were a debacle even in the daytime. The other thing... in your opinion, does it make sense for the Euro to have the 2m temps that it does? I would think that we would be able to nudge them down a little more in areas with heavy precip and the nighttime timing. Possible exception being in the city of Chicago due to urban effects and developing onshore flow.

Think there is a possibility we could already see some winter storm watches with the overnight package, especially in the western part of the sub. Not a slam dunk warning event but a band in excess of 6" looks like a reasonable possibility at this point. The Halloween snow seems like so long ago. I guess it would be a fitting bookend to the season to have this fulfilled.

The special appearance by Bernie that I posted yesterday