Hoosier

Despite the very cold air pouring in, I think there's some possibility of ratios actually trending worse or at least not improving much at a given location as time goes on. There is more of a DGZ earlier on, and then later in the event there is little DGZ with winds continuing to increase. Will be interesting to see how it shakes out.

Hard to comprehend what it would have been like if the higher end model runs panned out in the area. Basically a colder/more dangerous version of GHD.

MLI mod snow at 0 degrees

Snow melting on contact and probably still a few more hours until temp drops below freezing here. Could be a nasty thin layer of ice underneath for central/eastern cwa as LOT has alluded to.

If the 2-4" part was left out of that writeup, there's no way that most people would think that kind of mess could happen from that amount of snow.

Did some quick calculating, and Friday alone is going to knock almost 1.5 degrees off the monthly December temperature departure at ORD, which will take the month into negative territory. Pretty impressive to see that much of a move in 1 day this late in the month.

Would be curious to know if there are any other ratio reports from around there to get an overall sense.

Yes. Nice change of pace. Focusing on that instead of thinking about what could have been.

I've noticed over the years that models are often too slow with the speed of CAA behind the front in these setups (and also sometimes too slow with the front itself). Seems to be a bigger issue in the Plains but it happens elsewhere too.

Compare the 03z RAP to the 21z RAP and 15z RAP and you'll see...

Determined to stumble my way to 6"

The hi-res/short range guidance is gradually catching on with quicker deepening farther south.

Don't know if it was mentioned, but the 18z Euro was a tad wetter for much of the LOT cwa. The verbatim Kuchera is actually relatively in line with other models for the Chicago area.

Well, the 02z HRRR ticked west from 00z...

I think it was cyclone who brought up the Dec 1987 storm's rapid deepening and the enhanced winds that occurred on a localized basis. Hard to say but I wonder if that kind of thing gets repeated somewhere in MI/OH possibly IN with localized overperforming winds. Just such a rapid loss of pressure with this.

Ah, now it all makes sense.

Right. It matters more for anybody on the fringes of the better snows...

As tossworthy as your final call for ORD?

00z NAM deepens more quickly.

So the question is are the models behind with the frontal timing, or are they behind with the temperature drop behind the front? There's a difference.

Fwiw, not a single 21z SREF member is below 5" here. I'll take it.

Pretty remarkable to see the sfc low scoot barely n of due e between 03z-12z Friday while deepening 16 mb in those 9 hours. Normally you'd expect more of a northward tug.

Was just going to say the obs in the Plains are pretty sick. Multiple areas seeing mod/heavy snow at like -10 degrees.

Some stats for Chicago Friday will be the first time in 27 years that a high temperature does not go over 5 degrees in December. 12/9/1995: high 5, low -4 The last time that the high was 0 or below in December was 33 years ago. 12/21/1989: high 0, low -14 The last time that the high was below 0 in December was 39 years ago. 12/25/1983: high -5, low -17 Given the temps and strong winds on Friday, one could say that it will feel like the coldest day in December since the 1980s.

Those were the days. You and I were the first 2 Midwesterners over there in a sea of east coasters. Then one by one, more people from the Lakes/OV joined.