Hoosier

Anecdotal but when I was out it almost looked like normal Saturday traffic. Based on traffic alone you wouldn't know anything is going on. Hard to say how much of it is people just taking a ride but it is in the low 40s and rainy, so not exactly ideal roll the windows down weather. I wonder if society is gradually becoming more comfortable with going out.

I do wish we had better mid level lapse rates in the warm sector. They sort of lag behind more in the post frontal regime. That being said, could have enough favorable factors come together for at least some threat.

Might as well be snowing if this is the alternative

Quite a protest in Wisconsin.

This might end up being closer to reality than the updated version. Looks quite likely we'll be at/above 60k deaths on May 1.

Severe threat on Tuesday?

As of today, Indiana has 44% ICU bed availability and 78% ventilator availability. That is pretty decent, and the concern about bed and ventilator availability if the outbreak went unchecked was the main driver of the lockdown. So if I were governor of Indiana, here's what I would do when the current stay at home expires on May 1. Open barbershops and salons, but by appointment only. Clean frequently and require everybody to wear a mask. Open gyms on a limited basis, based on seniority. People with the longest memberships can go, but nobody else. Clean frequently and encourage mask use (may get uncomfortable when exercising lol). Everything else that is closed, I would pretty much leave all of that closed for now. Maintain take out/drive thru/delivery only for restaurants. Do that for 1 month and then reevaluate. I don't think it's smart to open up like 10 sectors all at once, because the number of cases could quickly ramp up. I understand the temptation to just let herd immunity take over, but the numbers would really spike and threaten to overwhelm hospitals. Even if the hospitals could somehow handle the load in that scenario (very unlikely), I think there is value in trying to delay getting sick. While the hyped up treatments don't seem to be panning out very well so far, it is possible that some effective treatment is found prior to a potential vaccine.

Ok, then it makes more sense that the peak numbers would be in May. There will be less people missed as long as testing increases.

Big jump in Illinois cases... +2724. But there were like 16000 tests submitted since yesterday, which is the most in a single day. I wonder if that modeling that showed Illinois peaking in mid May was factoring in increased testing capacity. I would guess not but I am not familiar with all that goes into them.

Today begins the great Georgia experiment of reopening. There are some things reopening in a few other states as well but Georgia seems to be getting more attention. Will have to wait awhile to be able to track what happens because of the incubation period of the virus, time to get a test and the results, etc. So we are looking at 2-3 weeks from now before we can even get the earliest indication. I'm sure a good amount of folks are still going to remain home or only go out for essentials for now. The concern would be if there's not much of an increase 2 weeks from now that it lulls people into a sense of security.

Looking at the number of cases by county for Indiana, the more populated counties really stand out. But looking at cases per 10,000 residents reveals some additional counties getting hit pretty hard that are not so obvious on the first map. One of the striking examples of that is in the northwest part of the state where Lake county has 1346 cases and the county directly south, Newton, has 40 cases. Yet it is Newton that has a hair more cases per 10000 people. Many of those cases in Newton county are at a nursing home. Another thing that stands out is the very low number of cases in Tippecanoe county/Lafayette area. Even with clearing out Purdue, there is still a pretty sizable population there. And the testing rate per 10000 people there (blue map below) has been better than many other counties in the state.

Sorry for your loss.

Illinois stay at home extended through May 30. Indiana's only goes through May 1. I wonder what Holcomb is going to do. I know he has not ruled out the possibility of having different regulations in different parts of the state, so if he goes that route, I'm sure Lake county would be more restricted than most of the state.

Pritzker expected to extend stay at home order in IL https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/coronavirus/pritzker-expected-to-extend-illinois-stay-at-home-order-thursday-sources/2260588/?amp

If the New York sample is representative of the entire state and the antibody test is highly accurate/specific to covid-19 and not picking up on other coronavirus exposures, it would suggest a fatality rate around 0.7% in NY state, give or take. Doesn't sound like a lot but that is a big problem if it had just been allowed to run through the population all at once. Hopefully we get an effective therapeutic to lower the death (and severe illness) rate.

Yes... about 1.4% of the population of New York state has tested positive for the virus. The antibody test was broken down by region of the state. 21% of the NYC sample had the antibodies with much lower numbers across the rest of the state. Intuitively it makes sense that a densely populated area would have a relatively high percentage of exposure. Even if this sample is representative of New York state (which may not even be true) you wouldn't want to extrapolate that 14% of, say, Kansas has been exposed.

No need to apologize. Generally speaking, I'm not going to shut down a thread unless it's a duplicate. There is a purpose for a longer range thread like this to be able discuss what is coming in the weeks/months ahead. It may just move more slowly than the winter medium/long range thread because of the different dynamics (not dynamics in the meteorological sense lol) involved between user interest in winter vs warm season things.

Cuomo announcing some interesting antibody test results from NY. In the initial round of testing, about 14% came back as having the antibodies. Wouldn't necessarily extrapolate that number across the country for various reasons but gives more credence to the idea that there are a large number of infections being missed.

Yeah we usually just throw the spring and summer discussion into the monthly threads.

Here are a couple maps showing cases per million and tests per million (from https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com). Based on watching trends around the globe and reading some of the studies that have come out, it's not unreasonable to think that hotter weather (or more specifically, people being outside in the sun more as the weather warms up) could reduce the spread to some degree. But I think any possible benefit we could get from that could be undone if social distancing is relaxed.

Was able to buy an 8 oz bottle of hand sanitizer at the store. Almost couldn't believe my eyes.

We are in a pattern of dominant eastern troughing. Indy is more under the influence of it being farther east.

Yeah I agree. Overall my politics are not in line with Holcomb's but I think he has done about as well as you can do in this situation given the circumstances. He was among the first R governors to close things down. When we do start to relax, I hope it's not the Georgia route. That seems like too much too fast.

This is not true. The number of lab confirmed flu deaths is much less than the estimated death toll each year. There weren't 80,000 lab confirmed flu deaths in the 2017-18 flu season.

We are already well over 2k deaths on worldometers. Or are you talking about cases?