Hoosier

Anecdotally I was noticing more traffic around here few weeks ago and then cell phone tracking data came out that backed it up (not just here but in much of the nation). People are being more mobile now. There is definitely stay at home fatigue.

Why am I seeing that the South Carolina stay at home order ended on Monday, 2 days ago?

Some of the early stuff that came out was actually suggesting that higher vitamin D could be a problem because of what it does with the ACE2 receptor. Vitamin D has so many health benefits though that imo you are better off getting a good amount than not.

Man these numbers just suck. Seems like it's going to take forever to consistently get under 1000 deaths/day in the US. Will we ever get there with things beginning to reopen?

Looks like the Friday system will *probably* flip to snow in some areas south of I-80, but I guess you can never be too sure in May until it's about ready to unfold.

Also noticed that ICU bed usage crept up. Not by much but obviously have to watch those numbers extremely closely, even on a county by county level.

On another note, Indiana put up one of its highest case numbers today, with a positive percent test rate still hovering around 18%. 2 days after starting to reopen so none of that would be accounted for yet.

Highly doubt 50,000 out of 180,000. You would expect NYC area to pretty much have the highest rate given the population density, mass transit, etc. and even their antibody percentage is only twenty something percent I think.

Maybe a bit more geographical (northern states doing "better" than farther south) but can see some political factors as well. Here's a map of governors

Novel virus that spreads easily. There could be a bit of a seasonal aspect but I think how we decide to live in the coming months is going to be the bigger factor in what happens. imo, having restrictions in colder temps vs having little or no restrictions in warmer temps would actually result in more cases in the latter scenario. I think any seasonal aspect just gets drowned out at a certain point.

Yeah, there are some signals in the guidance of a potential changeover or flirting with a changeover, but the NAM is just going crazy with it.

Radical departure from previously so take with a million grains of salt.

The NAM being the NAM? Pretty bullish on evap/dynamic cooling

https://news.yahoo.com/mutant-coronavirus-emerged-even-more-110046843.html

So the drunk driving comparison to covid-19 is problematic of course since drunk driving is not a contagious virus with potential for exponential growth, but it does show that we are willing to "tolerate" a certain number of deaths without banning cars. With many states reopening now or soon, the governors are getting to that point with covid-19. I was 100% on board with shutting things down, but even I think that it is time to start reopening where the hospital situation allows for it. How much and how fast to do it is the tricky part of course since cases can start increasing pretty fast. Personally for me in Indiana, I would've liked to beat back our curve more than we did before starting to reopen so many things at once, but it is what it is and we can only hope that hospitals can continue to handle the load without even getting close to being overwhelmed. Regarding the death toll, I am not going to argue that you can find deaths that were inappropriately labeled as covid-19. But you have to remember how this was spreading basically unchecked for a while in the US. In the final analysis I think we will find that we undercounted US deaths by thousands or even tens of thousands up to this point.

JB Pritzker apparently not a fan of Indiana reopening https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/local/id-rather-be-from-here-than-there-pritzker-on-indiana-reopening/2266349/

This is kinda interesting. Scientists at UW sequenced the virus and found distinctions between the virus circulating in Milwaukee and the virus circulating in Madison with limited mixing... so far. https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/2020/05/04/genetics-support-wisconsin-stay-home-order-find-coronavirus-clusters/3078539001/

A small look at day 1 of reopening in Indiana https://www.southbendtribune.com/coronavirus/south-bend-area-stores-reopen-and-customers-line-up-after-coronavirus-restrictions-lifted/article_1972ed10-8e2e-11ea-bd76-9b1e84f1ec73.amp.html

The best data we have does point to it being more contagious and more deadly than the flu, but the exact rates are definitely up for debate. We are not talking 50 or 100 times more deadly, but even a 0.5% IFR (which is a reasonable stab at it at this point) would make it multiple times more deadly than the flu.

Obv would take amounts with a grain of salt and treat this more as snow vs no snow

Shot for telling someone to wear a mask. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/crime/a-security-guard-was-fatally-shot-for-enforcing-the-michigan-mask-policy-prosecutor-says/ar-BB13A6Ym?ocid=spartanntp

IHME model updated with a big increase in projected deaths. Not surprising because it has been obvious now for a while that we are going to blow past the old number. As more and more states start to reopen, our behavior is going to determine a lot. I think this will be the main driving factor in terms of cases. Spending more time outside helps by all indications, but not if you have a large chunk of society going back to living like we were months ago. But I don't think we will be living like we were months ago, at least not many of us. Masks will probably remain relatively commonplace and many people will tend to avoid areas they perceive as higher risk.

Measurable snow has fallen 9 times (cue the principal in Ferris Bueller) in May in Chicago, with the last occurrence being in 1989. There is certainly an increased risk of some flakes if not something measurable in the upcoming pattern, so we'll see if we can add a 21st century year to the list. List of May measurable snow is below. If expanded to include trace, it would add in a lot more years. 1940: 2.2" 1907: 1.3" 1923: 0.6" 1989: 0.5" 1954: 0.2" 1966: 0.2" 1888: 0.1" 1911: 0.1" 1976: 0.1"

Volcanic ash laden murder hornets carrying coronavirus?

Totally forgot about that one!