Hoosier

Is that really the case? The covid fatality rate seems to be lower than flu for the younger age groups (0-20, and maybe 21-39) but higher than flu for the older ages. I suppose it would be trickier to sort out if you only look at deaths of "healthy" people. If you are 5 pounds overweight, does that qualify as a pre-existing condition?

We have started to pretty consistently get around/under 10% positive test rate in Indiana for the past several days.

ORD just over 8" for the month now.

Just dumping

Been there done that (trying to save a basement). Wears you down mentally and physically. Best of luck.

With 2 weeks left in the month, another thing to watch going forward for ORD will be whether they can pull off a 10"+ month. It has happened only 8 times out of 1792 months on record for Chicago. 4 of those have occurred since 1987.

I have a funny feeling about this... like there could be something close by. Or maybe I'm just tired. Does look like low level flow may be more backed in a zone around here compared to farther south.

Stuff like that is probably going on everywhere. The question is how many people are inappropriately designated as dying from covid and then on the other side, how many covid deaths have slipped through the cracks? (especially earlier on). For all the questions about the way the US is counting deaths, it looks f*cking fantastic compared to how some other countries are counting.

Tomorrow is one of those days where it sort of teeters on a fine line between getting pretty much nothing (tor wise) and quite a few of them. Have to keep an eye on it for sure. Looks like there could be some breaks in the precip here and there but definitely don't expect a clean day.

Maybe you can top the flooding you just saw.

Fwiw, it was officially a weak Nino (barely) with the 5 consecutive trimonthly readings of 0.5+ https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

Somembody who was at a church service of 180 people tested positive https://sacramento.cbslocal.com/2020/05/15/butte-county-mothers-day-service-coronavirus-contact-tracing/ In some ways this could be informative but there are a number of unknowns, like how many people were wearing masks and how far apart they were.

The good old days

Some of the Indiana restaurants that are closing https://www.theindychannel.com/news/coronavirus/covid-19-economic-impact/indianapolis-restaurants-and-businesses-permanently-closed-due-to-covid-19

The southeast MI one is unbelievable when you consider climo for that area.

Low level winds are backed out ahead of where that Lee county storm will be heading, so we'll see how long it can maintain.

From what I understand, they picked from all across the state. But it would be reasonable to think that the most populated areas of the state (like Indianapolis and Lake county) have had higher than 2.8% exposure.

Quite a bit of lightning to my south.

So based on those numbers above and where the death toll stood on May 1, here is what a near worst case scenario for Indiana could look like. I say near because it assumes basically everything goes wrong on the treatment/vaccine front but does NOT assume the hospitals get overloaded at any point, resulting in excess mortality rates. Let's say 70% of the state gets infected before an effective vaccine or a really good therapeutic that knocks down the death rate in a major way. That could result in nearly 30,000 deaths, unless the high risk population can be protected a lot better than they have been up to this point. Let's hope it doesn't get to that point. There is a lot of work being done on the treatment and vaccine front, so have to be cautiously optimistic that something will come along.

Indiana is doing antibody sampling, similar to what New York and some other areas have done. Preliminary results: 2.8% of the state's population, or 186,000 people, have or had the virus as of May 1. The confirmed number of cases as of May 1 suggests that only about 1 in 11 infections were being identified. The state's fatality rate comes out to 0.58%, which is in the general ballpark of what other similar antibody testing has suggested elsewhere. About 45% of infected individuals never had symptoms. The good news in all of this is that the spread was slowed dramatically by the measures that were taken, as our antibody results are well below what was observed in New York. The bad news is that we have a long way to go, assuming it is true that about 97% of the state's population has not been exposed. And I suspect the truly rural states (Indiana is not Wyoming) have had even less exposure. https://www.wishtv.com/news/medical/study-estimates-186000-hoosiers-had-covid-19-or-antibodies-by-may/

imo, could still have some severe threat north of I-80, pending ability to recover. I do think blaming the morning/current stuff is a bit simplistic because it has been happening south of I-80 too, where the SLGT still exists.

Looks like the new outlook trimmed the northern edge of the slight risk.

We'll see what happens but imo the better threat is roughly along/south of I-80.

I gained a few since then and am 195 lbs (at 5'11"). I'm gonna tell myself that it's all muscle gain.

Now there are questions about the Abbott rapid result test. Potentially far too high false negative rate.