Hoosier

Low deepens pretty quickly after 120h. That is about as far northwest as a tropical remnant gets. I mean even Bo gets rain and 2"+ pwats.

In range

How hard is it to get a remnant Gulf system to track northwest of Illinois? Pretty hard It is not unusual for the heaviest rains to shift along/west of track as these things move farther inland, so some of these may have been able to produce rain into parts of IA/WI, especially eastern areas.

Quick look shows iffy low level lapse rates after dark. So mixing would probably be held in check a bit but would still be windy.

Thing has better wind fields aloft in the Lakes than when it makes landfall.

Why not June tropical systems that are in the vicinity of where Cristobal is located pretty much always make landfall in Louisiana or Texas, so based on that and current model guidance, a landfall somewhere in Louisiana or possibly far eastern Texas looks very likely. Beyond that, the big question for us is how the remnants interact/phase with an incoming trough from the west. There are a range of possibilities here from just getting some remnant moisture to a more pronounced interaction that results in an unseasonably deep surface low with a severe weather and strong wind threat. We shall see.

To put in perspective how freaky the 12z Euro would be, just look at this map of low pressure records for the month of June. Some of these records around the Lakes would be demolished. The 3 Gulf coast systems that come to mind that had a big wind impact around the Lakes/OV are the 1900 Galveston hurricane, the 1941 hurricane and Ike from 2008. A couple others that backed in from the east coast and hammered the eastern sub would be Hazel and Sandy. All of these were September or October systems. Several years ago I did extensive research on tropical remnant systems around the region and I cannot recall anything like what the Euro is advertising during a summer month. Maybe that would suggest leaning toward a tamer outcome at this distance.

RC with a mention Next Tuesday and Wednesday, attention turns to the possibility of the remnants of a western or central Gulf coast landfalling tropical system affecting the area. It appears Tuesday could be warm/very warm and humid until any impacts. Much too far out for any specifics with the possible system itself, which could range from: tropical moisture getting involved for a heavy rain/flooding threat from showers and t-storms to extratropical phasing with an incoming long-wave trough for an unseasonably deep surface low that could add a strong wind component into the mix. Earlier cold front passage on Wednesday would bring an end to precip. threat quicker than depicted in official NDFD grids. Castro

Excellent point. A few of the past big wind makers from remnant systems were in September or October. Still have a lot of leaves on the trees then but being in June the leaves aren't even getting close to the point of dropping. Many model runs to go, but that Euro run would be a considerable impact event.

They want in on the madness of 2020? In all seriousness, aren't there certain cicadas that are around yearly? Have you noticed them before?

We don't see it very often with remnant systems in this part of the country but depending on how it evolves/phases, there could be a legit damaging wind threat with this thing.

I think the ingestion of Cristobal causes it to go a little crazy on that run. Not that it wouldn't have been a deep system without that interaction.

I'd pump the brakes on that comparison.

12z Euro ensembles

Definitely true. Frequency of remnant systems drops off as you get northwest of the Ohio Valley, and it's really rare as you get west of the Mississippi River north of I-80.

I think you have seen the highest temp you will have all year. Maybe until 2030.

Progged synoptic setup with that ridge poking into the Lakes looks very favorable to eventually get tropical remnants into the area. I had a flashback to Ike after seeing the 00z Euro. Definitely some similarity in the track after landfall on that run.

Was thinking about this one last night and figured somebody would make an anniversary post. It is still the 1 day record holder for number of tornadoes in Indiana. I would not consider it the worst outbreak in Indiana but it depends how you weight things. Certainly ranks high on the list.

I have noticed quite a bit of mask wearing in the crowds. Not everyone of course but it has to help. But then all the yelling and screaming that goes on expels more droplets.

The magnitude/scope of this does have a different feel than the stuff that has happened from time to time in the past several years, and I think the effects of the pandemic are certainly playing a role. Lots of stores and gas stations are shutting down early around here out of an abundance of caution, and there has been a lot of looting just across the border in IL this afternoon. This isn't just a big city thing. It has moved into the smaller cities and suburbs.

You know the tropical system out around day 10 will find a way to get into the region, right?

I would consider it all the same setup. Here are the maps from June 1. Just change the date in the url to see the other days. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1980/us0601.php

Gotta admit, I didn't know what would be able to knock the virus down in the news cycle since it is still killing about 1000 per day in this country. Interesting times we are living in. And probably more potential than usual for this stuff to persist and get worse since it is paired with the pandemic and the massive economic downturn.

Good point. Didn't think of that at the time. Either way, most of the data from Indiana and elsewhere is pointing to an IFR between 0.5% and 1%... on average. Some areas may be less and others may be higher.

Did you get the swab from hell or something less invasive?