Hoosier

Yeah I was wondering the same thing about this weekend. If the reopening starts May 4, might as well have just backed it up to May 2.

The ventilator and hospital readiness has trended better, but the percentage of positive test results has not really gone down and the number of cases is not on a consistent downward trend.

Also concerned about the multi-week period of significant differences in restrictions between Illinois and Indiana (since the Illinois stay at home goes until the end of May), especially for areas up and down the IL/IN border and in particular for Lake county Indiana since we have Cook county next door. Granted we already get a lot of Illinois people coming across the border for gas and other things (there have been times when I have seen more Illinois plates than Indiana plates at gas stations just inside the Indiana border lol) but now we will have a situation where stores and malls that have been closed for several weeks will be open in Indiana but not in Illinois. I'll tell ya one thing. Have done take out and drive through while all this has been going on, but you couldn't pay me to dine inside at a restaurant for the foreseeable future. No thanks.

^I am concerned that it is opening a bit too much too quickly, but hopefully it works out relatively ok. Based on what we have seen in Georgia so far, restaurants are generally not getting a lot of dine-in customers so far, so there seems to be some amount of self-regulation on behavior.

Summary of Gov Holcomb news conference. I guess the May 15 stay at home order for Indianapolis would supersede this. Holcomb said reopening will happen in five stages, with the goal of having the state “back on track” by July 4. He cautioned that the plan is subject to change. Stage 1 is the phase we have been in since mid-March. This phase included essential manufacturing, construction, infrastructure, government, business and other critical operations will remaining open. Schools remain closed. Stage 2 will begin on Monday, May 4 for most counties. Marion and Lake Counties will begin Stage 2 on May 11. Cass County will start Stage 2 on May 18. The stage includes: Those 65 and older or high-risk should remain at home as much as possible. Social gatherings can increase to 25 people. Restaurants can open at 50% capacity starting May 11. Essential travel restrictions will be lifted. Remaining manufacturers that were not considered essential will be able to open. Retail and commercial businesses will open at 50% capacity. Restaurants and bars that serve food may open starting May 11 at 50% capacity, but bar seating will remain closed. Personal services such as hair salons and tattoo parlors can begin to open May 11 by appointment only and must follow social distancing guidelines. Those who work in office settings are encouraged to work remotely whenever possible. Starting May 8, for all counties, Indiana worship services may convene. Indoor services are limited to 10 people are fewer. Those 65 and older are asked to stay home. https://amp.indystar.com/amp/3060909001

Holcomb news conference in about 10 mins on the future of the stay at home order. Big moment

Tomorrow is the last day of the current stay at home order in Indiana. Normally we hear about it getting extended a few days in advance and Holcomb has been acting pretty coy about it, so signs seem to be pointing toward some kind of relaxation being announced tomorrow. Just how much of a relaxation is the question. Indianapolis mayor extended the city's stay at home until May 15, so we may be at the point where certain cities/areas of the state will have more restrictions than others.

At least 890 of the 2200 employees at the Tyson plant in Logansport, IN have tested positive. https://www.wishtv.com/news/nearly-900-at-tyson-foods-plant-test-positive-for-coronavirus/

I think we are pretty well screwed at this point. Even as things start opening up again, a lot of businesses aren't going to survive this.

So here we are on the last day of April. Considering the current death toll and still generally having 1500-2000+ deaths per day, it is getting harder to see how we avoid reaching 100k deaths by the end of May. Saw this model posted in another subforum. It assumes some relaxation in social distancing as time goes by, which is why deaths go up again in July. https://covid19-projections.com

The percent of the total population that has died in Sweden (not talking deaths divided by confirmed cases) is actually running higher than the US. I don't know if I'd call them the model. One thing mentioned in there was the long term care facilities. That has been an epic disaster in many countries. Very sad.

Link to the remdesivir story. https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/coronavirus-drug-remdesivir-shows-promise-large-trial-n1195171 Not a knockout treatment but something is better than nothing.

Some positive news coming out about remdesivir. Shortened the duration of illness and apparently cut the mortality rate compared to placebo. Hopefully won't be taken as "omg we have the cure, everybody back to normal now" but a good step.

People going out more https://www.thehour.com/news/article/Quarantine-fatigue-continues-for-second-week-15232645.php

Not surprisingly the R0 has crept up in Germany since they eased restrictions https://news.yahoo.com/amphtml/coronavirus-reproduction-rate-germany-1-081807374.html

Parameters are just kind of meh today, especially in the IA/IL portion of the risk area. Good enough for some severe wx... not terrible but not that great. Could've used more instability or shear or both.

The stay at home fatigue is really evident now. Obviously have a fair number of people wearing masks though.

There was some discussion about it in the SNE thread (good luck finding it with how long that thread is). Basically it's bad math.

Regarding Cass county. They are cracking down: Mayor Chris Martin has declared an executive order for Cass County that began at noon today. The announcement came during a joint press conference among representatives of the City of Logansport, Cass County Commissioners, the Cass County Health Department and Logansport Memorial Hospital that was held at McHale Performing Arts Center and streamed live starting at 11 a.m. Meanwhile, officials are still pouring over the latest data on the number of positive tests in Cass County for COVID-19. The Indiana State Department of Health's latest data shows 1,025 reported cases in Cass County, but officials fear that number will increase dramatically after complete results of tests taken at Tyson Food's Logansport plant are confirmed. The following directives go into effect under Martin's executive order, which County Commissioner's President Dr. Ralph Anderson confirmed will extend to all of Cass County: • Only one person per family will be allowed into shopping markets and other essential businesses that remain open. • All persons are asked to wear a mask covering their nose and mouth upon entering a business. Anderson also said that business owners may prohibit entrance of customers not wearing face masks into their establishments. • Children under 16 years of age are not allowed into any businesses. • No more than 2 people per 1,000 square feet of retail space are permitted at one time in an establishment. This number is capped at 125 people for businesses with more than 62,000 square feet of space. If the establishment has less than 5,000 square feet of retail space, up to five customers may be allowed inside at the same time. Anderson noted that businesses with an outside area that has its own payment processing may be considered two businesses for the purpose of calculating the acceptable number of patrons allowed at one time. • Drive-thru, curbside pickup and delivery food services will still be allowed to operate. • A person who intentionally, knowingly or recklessly violates the executive order commits a class B misdemeanor under Indiana code. • An increased law enforcement presence will monitor and assist in enforcing the orders. • The elderly and high-risk persons are strongly encouraged to avoid all public gatherings and minimize all travel to the maximum extent possible. • All previous order remain in effect. Logansport Memorial Hospital CEO Perry Gay said that the latest surge has the potential of overwhelming the hospital. "Our hospital has been preparing for this surge for weeks," Gay said. "However, with this surge in possible cases and the numbers that we are seeing, if we just saw 5-10 percent of those possible cases needing critical care, we would be overwhelmed. Our hospital is not equipped with enough staff or resources to care for numbers like this." Gay added that some non-COVID-19 patients may need to be sent elsewhere for treatment, should the hospital experience an overwhelming influx of patients. "As a result, we have worked with other facilities who stand ready to assist ... at this time, individuals with illnesses or injuries other than COVID-19 may be sent or transferred for care to hospitals in our surrounding counties." It is unclear whether any additional travel restrictions are being put in place. https://www.pharostribune.com/article_997d5d42-8898-11ea-917b-47f8282283a8.html

The Tyson plant is like the anti-where's Waldo

A lot of this can be attributed to the big outbreak at the Tyson plant in Cass county.

The positive hit rate on cases in Indiana has been really high the past few days... like well over 30%. The long term statewide average (since testing began) is around 19%

Multiple states said they had calls into 911 or state health departments regarding taking disinfectants for the virus. It is hard to imagine some people could be that stupid but I guess so.

IN has started providing presumptive covid-19 deaths on the state's dashboard. There have been 88 of those. They are not included in the official total, at least for now.