Hoosier

Novel virus that spreads easily. There could be a bit of a seasonal aspect but I think how we decide to live in the coming months is going to be the bigger factor in what happens. imo, having restrictions in colder temps vs having little or no restrictions in warmer temps would actually result in more cases in the latter scenario. I think any seasonal aspect just gets drowned out at a certain point.

https://news.yahoo.com/mutant-coronavirus-emerged-even-more-110046843.html

So the drunk driving comparison to covid-19 is problematic of course since drunk driving is not a contagious virus with potential for exponential growth, but it does show that we are willing to "tolerate" a certain number of deaths without banning cars. With many states reopening now or soon, the governors are getting to that point with covid-19. I was 100% on board with shutting things down, but even I think that it is time to start reopening where the hospital situation allows for it. How much and how fast to do it is the tricky part of course since cases can start increasing pretty fast. Personally for me in Indiana, I would've liked to beat back our curve more than we did before starting to reopen so many things at once, but it is what it is and we can only hope that hospitals can continue to handle the load without even getting close to being overwhelmed. Regarding the death toll, I am not going to argue that you can find deaths that were inappropriately labeled as covid-19. But you have to remember how this was spreading basically unchecked for a while in the US. In the final analysis I think we will find that we undercounted US deaths by thousands or even tens of thousands up to this point.

JB Pritzker apparently not a fan of Indiana reopening https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/local/id-rather-be-from-here-than-there-pritzker-on-indiana-reopening/2266349/

This is kinda interesting. Scientists at UW sequenced the virus and found distinctions between the virus circulating in Milwaukee and the virus circulating in Madison with limited mixing... so far. https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/2020/05/04/genetics-support-wisconsin-stay-home-order-find-coronavirus-clusters/3078539001/

A small look at day 1 of reopening in Indiana https://www.southbendtribune.com/coronavirus/south-bend-area-stores-reopen-and-customers-line-up-after-coronavirus-restrictions-lifted/article_1972ed10-8e2e-11ea-bd76-9b1e84f1ec73.amp.html

The best data we have does point to it being more contagious and more deadly than the flu, but the exact rates are definitely up for debate. We are not talking 50 or 100 times more deadly, but even a 0.5% IFR (which is a reasonable stab at it at this point) would make it multiple times more deadly than the flu.

Shot for telling someone to wear a mask. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/crime/a-security-guard-was-fatally-shot-for-enforcing-the-michigan-mask-policy-prosecutor-says/ar-BB13A6Ym?ocid=spartanntp

IHME model updated with a big increase in projected deaths. Not surprising because it has been obvious now for a while that we are going to blow past the old number. As more and more states start to reopen, our behavior is going to determine a lot. I think this will be the main driving factor in terms of cases. Spending more time outside helps by all indications, but not if you have a large chunk of society going back to living like we were months ago. But I don't think we will be living like we were months ago, at least not many of us. Masks will probably remain relatively commonplace and many people will tend to avoid areas they perceive as higher risk.

Volcanic ash laden murder hornets carrying coronavirus?

Was there a sick employee there that prompted the other employees to get tested? Seems very unlikely that it will remain 0 for 373 on having symptoms.

Has anyone been checking into getting the antibody test? I am thinking about getting one but may wait a bit. I know some of them haven't been very reliable. As mentioned a while back, I was sick in March with a number of the symptoms and am curious to see if that's what it was. Thing is that I was prescribed Azithromycin and saw a pretty rapid improvement after starting it, except for some shortness of breath which lingered longer. To me that would point to it being something other than covid unless I was on the verge of getting over it anyway.

I have noticed that cases seem to be growing pretty quickly around LAF now (total number still relatively modest though). Perhaps it is the tentacles reaching out from Cass county or perhaps not, but it is hard to keep this thing down. It is almost like when someone being chased by bees goes into the water and the bees wait for them to come up for air. You can't keep yourself under water forever.

I was under the impression that they basically stopped trying for a SARS and MERS vaccine since they were contained. No?

That is so ridiculously fast compared to how long it normally takes. I am not anti-vaxx but I'd be leery about lining up for THIS one right away if it really comes out that soon. Takes quite a while to properly establish safety and efficacy.

I don't blame him at all. Too much potential to catch it, especially once the rules on restaurant capacity reach 50% and then 75%. I'd feel better about dining outdoors.

Yeah I was wondering the same thing about this weekend. If the reopening starts May 4, might as well have just backed it up to May 2.

The ventilator and hospital readiness has trended better, but the percentage of positive test results has not really gone down and the number of cases is not on a consistent downward trend.

Also concerned about the multi-week period of significant differences in restrictions between Illinois and Indiana (since the Illinois stay at home goes until the end of May), especially for areas up and down the IL/IN border and in particular for Lake county Indiana since we have Cook county next door. Granted we already get a lot of Illinois people coming across the border for gas and other things (there have been times when I have seen more Illinois plates than Indiana plates at gas stations just inside the Indiana border lol) but now we will have a situation where stores and malls that have been closed for several weeks will be open in Indiana but not in Illinois. I'll tell ya one thing. Have done take out and drive through while all this has been going on, but you couldn't pay me to dine inside at a restaurant for the foreseeable future. No thanks.

^I am concerned that it is opening a bit too much too quickly, but hopefully it works out relatively ok. Based on what we have seen in Georgia so far, restaurants are generally not getting a lot of dine-in customers so far, so there seems to be some amount of self-regulation on behavior.

Summary of Gov Holcomb news conference. I guess the May 15 stay at home order for Indianapolis would supersede this. Holcomb said reopening will happen in five stages, with the goal of having the state “back on track” by July 4. He cautioned that the plan is subject to change. Stage 1 is the phase we have been in since mid-March. This phase included essential manufacturing, construction, infrastructure, government, business and other critical operations will remaining open. Schools remain closed. Stage 2 will begin on Monday, May 4 for most counties. Marion and Lake Counties will begin Stage 2 on May 11. Cass County will start Stage 2 on May 18. The stage includes: Those 65 and older or high-risk should remain at home as much as possible. Social gatherings can increase to 25 people. Restaurants can open at 50% capacity starting May 11. Essential travel restrictions will be lifted. Remaining manufacturers that were not considered essential will be able to open. Retail and commercial businesses will open at 50% capacity. Restaurants and bars that serve food may open starting May 11 at 50% capacity, but bar seating will remain closed. Personal services such as hair salons and tattoo parlors can begin to open May 11 by appointment only and must follow social distancing guidelines. Those who work in office settings are encouraged to work remotely whenever possible. Starting May 8, for all counties, Indiana worship services may convene. Indoor services are limited to 10 people are fewer. Those 65 and older are asked to stay home. https://amp.indystar.com/amp/3060909001

Holcomb news conference in about 10 mins on the future of the stay at home order. Big moment

Tomorrow is the last day of the current stay at home order in Indiana. Normally we hear about it getting extended a few days in advance and Holcomb has been acting pretty coy about it, so signs seem to be pointing toward some kind of relaxation being announced tomorrow. Just how much of a relaxation is the question. Indianapolis mayor extended the city's stay at home until May 15, so we may be at the point where certain cities/areas of the state will have more restrictions than others.

At least 890 of the 2200 employees at the Tyson plant in Logansport, IN have tested positive. https://www.wishtv.com/news/nearly-900-at-tyson-foods-plant-test-positive-for-coronavirus/