Hoosier

Small cellular activity in the southeast LOT cwa

#crushedbycristobal

Main severe threat tomorrow is obviously farther east, but may have an outside shot to pop something around here late morning/midday.

Warmer air lurking downstate IL/MO, ready to advect in. Will eventually be countered by loss of diurnal heating of course.

3-4"+ reports in Iowa.

The band that is expected to develop later doesn't look like it's going to be in a hurry to shift north. Could semi-train.

Wonder what kind of winds that the run of the mill showers upstream will produce.

Band of rain coming through now with pretty decent gusts. Legit looks like tropical storm conditions.

Every time I think we're about done with the sun, it comes back out. It's weird because it's been looking cloudy to the s/se but it keeps finding a way.

Overall there has been a gradual uptick in intensity of the nw-se band in IL/IN.

Couple of popcorn cells have gone up to my south. Would estimate frequent gusts 35-40 mph now.

Getting gusty now. Still have some sun to help out with that.

Can pick out the circulation on radar... in the vicinity of Quincy. Looks like Cedar Rapids is getting into some good rain now.

Cristobal could've made things easier by fully phasing. I think you could argue it either way, but I tend to agree so will merge it. The Plains threat is largely outside the sub and the severe threat tomorrow, while not explicitly due to Cristobal's remnant circulation, is at least somewhat related.

Pressure down to 992 mb and forward speed has increased to 25 mph per latest advisory.

Will certainly be interesting to watch. Despite the problematic wind profiles farther aloft, the low level shear is kind of scary. Wonder if it could be a day with not many tornadoes but maybe a more significant one thrown in there somewhere, even if shorter lived.

Gonna have fun weenieing out over the HRRR runs. The 04z run already has almost 70 kts at 850 mb to the south of Kankakee at 22z.

BULLETIN Tropical Depression Cristobal Advisory Number 30 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD AL032020 1000 PM CDT Mon Jun 08 2020 ...CRISTOBAL MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS... ...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.8N 92.4W ABOUT 10 MI...20 KM W OF LITTLE ROCK ARKANSAS ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SSE OF SPRINGFIELD MISSOURI MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for... * Areas in and near the length of the Mississippi Valley A Gale Warning is in effect for... * Lake Michigan DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Cristobal was located near latitude 34.8 North, longitude 92.4 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h) and its motion is expected to accelerate to the north and north-northeast over the next 48 hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours as Cristobal transitions into an extratropical cyclone. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Gusty winds are expected Tuesday night and Wednesday over portions of the Midwest and western Great Lakes as Cristobal strengthens as an extratropical low. RAINFALL: Cristobal will produce storm total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with local amounts to 6 inches from Arkansas to the western Great Lakes through Wednesday morning. This rainfall may produce flash flooding, and is forecast to produce isolated significant river flooding across portions of the central Gulf Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Smaller streams across southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi have begun to rise and are forecast to crest mid-week. New and renewed significant river flooding is possible across the Mid and Upper Mississippi Valley. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Roth

The forecast soundings I pulled have sfc based inflow or practically surface based at that time. The hodos do get wacky but certainly not hurting in the low levels.

Both 00z HRRRs and the incoming NAM/3 km NAM would appear to have a decent severe threat in a good chunk of the LOT cwa tomorrow evening, after perhaps a bit of a lull earlier on.

Maybe there will be some reports but as of now, there are no severe reports on the SPC page in the south from Cristobal for today. Hopefully we do better tomorrow.

Haven't given it as much attention as other aspects, but definitely interested in the local severe threat after dark Tue. Tremendous low level shear, increasing CAPE... and surface based storms well into the night shouldn't be a problem with this airmass and the low levels remaining relatively well mixed.

Convection or not, I am most interested in the timeframe between about 6 pm and midnight here. If we're going to mix down some monster gusts, that's when it would be.

Yes. The core of the strongest winds with Cristobal look to be accompanied by clouds/precip. Key difference.

Good representation there of the increased lag between Cristobal and the trailing wave. Not looking like an Ike type scenario as far as winds from tropical remnants, but probably still going to be better than 95% of remnant systems in the Midwest in that regard.